Login
Sign Up
Woofun AI reports that President Donald Trump convened with Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis at the White House on Thursday to address the legislative trajectory of the CLARITY Act. This executive engagement underscores the administration’s direct involvement in finalizing the crypto market structure bill before the Senate’s scheduled August recess.
The political urgency stems from the impending midterm elections, which many lawmakers view as the final viable window for passage. Senator Thom Tillis, who has been negotiating unresolved provisions, indicated that an agreement is targeted for the end of the week. A revised draft is expected to be introduced within the next few days, with Senator Lummis stating on Wednesday that the bill should reach the Senate floor by next week. Comment was sought from Senator Lummis regarding these timelines.
Market sentiment reflects this accelerated timeline, though with significant skepticism regarding final enactment.
Woofun AI data shows Kalshi traders increased the probability of a Senate vote before the August recess to 79%, up from 68.8% the previous day.
However, long-term outlooks remain cautious: a $3 million prediction market assigns only a 36% chance of the bill becoming law in 2026, rising to 62% by the end of 2027.
Meanwhile, Polymarket traders price the likelihood of the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year at just 39%.
The divergence between voting odds and enactment probabilities highlights the structural hurdles remaining for the crypto market structure bill. While the path to a Senate floor vote appears increasingly likely, the gap between legislative action and final law remains wide. This disconnect suggests that even if the bill passes the Senate, subsequent procedural steps may delay its implementation well into the next congressional session.