Woofun AI data shows that the "Yes" share for the Polymarket contract regarding a US ban on open-source AI models in 2026 is currently priced at 16%. The market resolves as "Yes" if the US federal government enacts legislation, executive orders, or export controls restricting public access to specific open-source models before December 31, 2026. Eligible models include general-purpose large language models like Meta Llama and Mistral with publicly downloadable weights. Recent attention on Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 model has intensified scrutiny, while OpenAI's Dean W. Ball suggested potential soft legal measures, contrasting with David Sacks' rejection of regulatory suppression.