Fed July Hold Probability at 62.1% While September Hike Odds Reach 56.2%

CME Fed Watch data indicates a 62.1% chance of stable rates in July, shifting to a 56.2% probability of a 25bps cumulative hike by September.

Woofun AI data shows that CME Fed Watch metrics assign a 62.1% probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates in July, with a 37.9% likelihood of a 25 basis point cumulative increase. By September, the market prices in a 15.1% chance of unchanged rates, while the probability of a 25 basis point cumulative hike rises to 56.2%, and a 50 basis point cumulative increase sits at 28.7%.