Fed July Hold Odds Hit 63.7% While September Hike Probability Surges to 55.2%

CME FedWatch data indicates a 63.7% chance of no rate change in July, but odds of a 25bps hike by September climb to 55.2%, signaling shifting market expectations.

Woofun AI data shows that CME FedWatch probabilities assign a 63.7% likelihood to the Federal Reserve maintaining current interest rates in July, with a 36.3% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point increase. By September, the probability of holding rates steady falls to 19.6%, while the odds of a 25 basis point hike rise to 55.2% and a 50 basis point hike reach 25.2%.