Polymarket Israel Iran Ceasefire Yes Probability Drops 15 Percent

Polymarket 'Israel and Iran Ceasefire Lasting' August 15 sub-market sees 'Yes' win rate fall from 77.5% to 62.5%, reflecting a sharp 15% decline in predicted likelihood.

Woofun AI data shows that the "Yes" option in the "Israel and Iran Ceasefire Lasting" prediction market on Polymarket experienced a significant shift in winning probability within the "August 15" sub-market. The likelihood dropped from 77.5% one hour prior to the current level of 62.5%, representing a 15 percentage point decrease.