Bernstein Cuts Circle Price Target 26% to $140, Lowers 2026 USDC Supply Forecast

Bernstein reduces Circle target to $140, citing minimal Open USD threat. USDC supply drops to $73B; Hyperliquid balances hit $6B. Long-term stablecoin market projected at $4T.

Woofun AI reports that Bernstein lowered Circle’s price target from $190 to $140 while retaining an outperform rating, asserting the Open USD Alliance poses less risk than anticipated. As of July 28, Circle closed at $64.32. Q2 USDC end-of-period supply fell to $73 billion from $77 billion in Q1, though average supply rose to $76 billion. Reserve income reached $655 million as the average SOFR rate dropped to 3.62% and reserve yield fell to 3.46%.

USDC balances on Hyperliquid expanded from $5 billion in mid-May to over $6 billion, yielding $210 million in annualized gross reserve income, with $190 million allocated to the exchange via revenue sharing. Bernstein cut its 2026 USDC supply forecast by 37% to $83 billion and 2028 forecast to $170 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for 2026 was reduced by 12% to $602 million, and EPS dropped from $1.98 to $0.92. The firm projects total stablecoin supply will reach $4 trillion by 2035, with Circle holding a 30% share.

Circle also secured final OCC approval in July to establish Circle National Trust.