Bullish
CME FedWatch Shows 66.3% Probability of No Rate Change at July FOMC
2026-07-30 02:31:56
Market pricing indicates a 66.3% chance the Fed holds rates steady in July, with a 33.7% probability assigned to a 25bps hike, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Woofun AI data shows that the CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns a 66.3% probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate at its July FOMC meeting. The remaining 33.7% probability is allocated to a 25-basis-point rate increase. These figures are derived from the pricing of 30-Day Federal Funds futures, which capture market expectations for the effective federal funds rate.
WOOFUN AI
Impact Assessment · Quick Read
The elevated probability of a rate hold suggests markets are pricing in a pause, potentially easing immediate pressure on risk assets. However, the significant tail risk of a hike implies that incoming inflation and labor data will remain critical drivers of volatility. This divergence highlights ongoing uncertainty regarding the Fed's next move, keeping borrowing cost expectations fluid.
Generated by WOOFUN AI · For reference only, not investment advice
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