Polymarket AI Bubble Burst Odds Drop 5% to 19% in 24 Hours

Probability of an AI bubble bursting within a year falls to 19% on Polymarket, down 5% daily. Resolution requires three major negative events within 90 days.

Woofun AI data shows that the probability of an "AI bubble bursting within the year" on Polymarket has declined to 19%, representing a 5% drop over the past 24 hours. Market resolution rules dictate a "Yes" outcome only if at least three significant negative events occur within a single 90-day window. Trigger conditions include Nvidia (NVDA) or major hardware suppliers like TSMC and ASML seeing stock declines of 50% from all-time highs, the SOXX ETF falling 40% from its peak, OpenAI or Anthropic filing for bankruptcy or being acquired, and H100 GPU rental prices dropping below $1 for five consecutive days.

Previously, Situational Awareness fund, managed by Leopold Aschenbrenner, sold its entire public stock portfolio due to liquidity pressure, with Citadel acting as the buyer. Market participants view this forced liquidation as potentially accelerating deleveraging in AI trades and signaling that short-term risks have been released, which could stabilize the sector.