US Senators Urge CFTC Ban on Wildfire Prediction Markets Amid Arson Fears

Democratic senators demand CFTC prohibit California wildfire betting, citing $1.2M volume in 2025 LA fires and arson incentives. Current rules omit wildfires.

Woofun AI reports that a group of Democratic U.S. senators has written to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig, urging a ban on prediction markets linked to California wildfires due to concerns that traders might deliberately start fires for profit. Led by Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley, the letter notes that prediction markets related to the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires generated approximately $1.2 million in trading volume. The market predicting containment of the Palisades Fire saw $711,600 in volume, with the largest single wager reaching roughly $274,800, mostly on later containment dates.

The senators highlight that CFTC rules proposed on June 10 require case-by-case review of contracts involving terrorism, assassination, war, gambling, and illegal activities, but do not explicitly address wildfire-related events.