SemiAnalysis Claims DeepMind SOTA Probability Drops to Zero Amid Talent and Compute Loss

DeepMind’s state-of-the-art AI probability hits zero as key researchers depart and over 20% of TPU shipments go to Anthropic, citing bureaucratic culture.

Woofun AI notes that SemiAnalysis assesses Google DeepMind as no longer leading AI research, with the likelihood of regaining state-of-the-art status falling to zero. The analysis highlights significant departures, including Jeff Dean, Sanjay Ghemawat, Quoc Le, and Oriol Vinyals starting new ventures, while Noam Shazeer joined OpenAI and John Jumper moved to Anthropic.

Additionally, SemiAnalysis projects that more than 20% of TPU shipments between Q3 2026 and Q4 2027 will be sold directly to Anthropic, securing computing resources for competitors. The report attributes these setbacks to Google's bureaucratic and conservative organizational structure, comparing its current trajectory to IBM and Intel.