Fed September Rate Hike Probability Drops to 44% Amid Weak Jobs Data

Weak July non-farm payrolls and downward revisions reduce Fed hike odds to 44%. Oil prices fall as Strait of Hormuz traffic recovers. Gold breaks $4,370.

Woofun AI data shows that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has declined from approximately 55% to 44%, driven by an unexpected drop in July U.S. non-farm job creation and downward revisions to prior months' data.

Concurrently, oil prices have fallen significantly due to recovering traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while spot gold surged past $4,370 per ounce. U.S. equity indexes recorded their largest weekly gains since mid-April.

The upcoming week features the conclusion of the semiconductor earnings season, with reports from Applied Materials, Cisco, and CoreWeave closely watched. Inflation data, including July CPI and PPI, will be central to market focus. Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Hamack and Richmond Fed President Barkin, are scheduled to speak ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, amid ongoing internal disagreements and silence from Chairman Warsh.