83% of Economists Forecast ECB September Rate Hike to 2.50%

Survey data shows 83% of economists expect a 25bps ECB hike in September, with consensus rising from prior months. Nomura warns single hikes risk being viewed as insufficient.

Woofun AI data shows that 83% of surveyed economists anticipate the European Central Bank will raise its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September. Among the 69 respondents, 57 predict this move, reflecting an increase from 72% before the July meeting and 65% in June.

Additionally, 80% expect rates to hold at 2.50% through year-end, while 63% foresee them remaining at least at that level through Q3 2027.

Nomura observes that prolonged high oil prices elevate second-round inflation risks, prompting the ECB to act preemptively. The bank argues that a single rate hike may be perceived as mere fine-tuning rather than effective monetary policy, suggesting that if one hike occurs, another is likely to follow given the clear necessity established in June.