On-Chain Events Calendar (Issue 3 · Week 28, 2026)

01Important Events of Today

On July 8th, Porta Network recorded over 385 million transactions in a single month, with 26.9 million active accounts. Both the supply of USDT and the number of associated addresses hit record highs. On the same day, Interpol launched Operation First Dawn 2026, freezing $293 million in assets and arresting nearly 6,000 people, dealing a severe blow to cross-chain money laundering activities. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission ordered platforms to switch to hardware keys within 12 months to address quarterly fraud losses amounting to $482 million, signaling a shift from reactive regulation to the establishment of a comprehensive defense system.

02Token Unlock Reminder

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-10

Token Unlock Reminders

This week (2026-W27), the on-chain unlock pressure is rated as medium, with peak unlock dates concentrated around 2026-07-12. The overall market sentiment is in the fearful range (44/100). Coupled with the concentrated unlocking of specific tokens, attention should be paid to potential short-term liquidity shocks.

Data Interpretation:

1. ONDO Weekend Unlock Risk: Ondo will release 1.03% of its tokens over the weekend. Due to the relatively low liquidity in exchanges during weekends, insufficient market depth may amplify the impact of selling pressure on prices. Investors should be vigilant about any abnormal price fluctuations during this period.
2. STRK Monday Opening Volatility: STRK will unlock 0.97% of its tokens at the start of Monday. As the beginning of a new trading week, market sentiment and capital competition are intense. Unlocks may exacerbate short-term price swings. It is recommended to pay attention to trading volume changes after the market opens to assess the market’s capacity to absorb these changes.
3. Macro Sentiment Context: The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 44/100, indicating a cautious market sentiment. Under such circumstances, any additional selling pressure (such as token unlocks) could be amplified. Investors need to evaluate their risk exposure by considering real-time market conditions (e.g., current BTC price of $63,232.00).

03Macroeconomic Calendar

As of 2026-07-10, the total global crypto market value stood at $2.25 trillion, with BTC trading at $63,232.00. The market sentiment index read 44/100, indicating a fearful mood. There were significant macroeconomic and regulatory developments this week, as summarized below:

1. On 07-08, Interpol launched “Operation First Light 2026,” freezing assets worth $293 million and arresting nearly 6,000 people in an effort to crack down on cross-chain money laundering activities. This action highlighted the global commitment to combating digital crime and underscored the compliance risks faced by the industry.

2. On 07-08, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission mandated that platforms switch to hardware keys within 12 months in response to quarterly fraud losses amounting to $482 million. This move marked a shift from reactive regulation to the establishment of a comprehensive defense framework.

3. On 07-08, the CFTC proposed new rules for prediction markets and exemptions for on-chain software from registration, aiming to strike a balance between innovation and compliance. Meanwhile, stricter regulations under the EU’s MiCA led companies like Revolut to suspend USDT services, signaling a move toward clearer global crypto regulation.

4. On 07-08, Bitcoin faced dual pressures of daily losses of $280 million among long-term holders and outflows from ETFs. The price failed to rebound above the $63,000 level, indicating that traditional bull market indicators were no longer effective and that institutional risk appetite had plummeted.

5. On 07-07, AscendEX announced its closure due to compliance pressures and cash flow issues, resulting in difficulties for users to withdraw their funds. This incident exposed the risks associated with hot wallets used by CeFi institutions and served as a warning about the solvency crises facing traditional exchanges under increasingly strict regulatory oversight.

04Operation suggestions

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-10

Operational Recommendations

1. Defensive Strategy to Cope with Whale Movements and Sentiment Reversals (Time Frame: This Week) Given the sharp fluctuations in the market sentiment index, which rose from 14.2 to 50.1, alongside a 60-point surge in whale activity on the blockchain, as well as a significant shift toward bullish sentiment among KOLs (+85.0 percentage points in the bullish-bearish gap), the market currently faces risks of short-term sentiment overheating and intensified capital battles [Source]. If BTC, currently trading at $63,232.00 with 24-hour trading volume of $26.1B, shows signs of stagnation despite high volume or falls below key support levels, and if the sentiment index drops below 44/100, it is recommended to adopt a moderate defensive strategy, avoiding purchases at high sentiment levels and waiting for volatility to subside before entering the market.

2. Avoiding Liquidity Shocks from Specific Token Unlocks (Time Frame: Next 2 Weeks) For tokens such as ROLL (33.33 million tokens), ARB (12.353 million tokens), GPS (10.925 million tokens), and AGT (164 million tokens) set to unlock on July 16, there is a significant risk of short-term selling pressure [Source]. If these tokens experience price fluctuations or abnormally high trading volumes around the unlock date, it is advisable to be cautious with holdings. Those holding such assets may consider gradually reducing positions ahead of the unlock to avoid short-term supply shocks; those without such holdings should avoid reckless buying during the unlock period and wait until selling pressure subsides and prices stabilize before evaluating entry opportunities.

3. Focus on the Long-Term Logic of Worldcoin’s Supply Reduction and Value Validation (Time Frame: This Month) Worldcoin will reduce the daily WLD issuance by 43% on July 24, but the 4.9 billion already issued tokens still pose potential selling pressure. The market is assessing whether World ID can generate real demand through biometric verification to offset this supply impact [Source]. If the WLD price fails to stabilize effectively after the supply reduction announcement, or if blockchain activity does not increase significantly despite reduced supply, it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. If indicators of real demand (such as active address count and trading volume) show continuous improvement and the price breaks above short-term resistance levels, phased buying could be considered, but strict stop-loss settings are necessary to guard against ongoing selling pressure from existing tokens.

Risk Warnings

1. Risk of Extreme Sentiment Fluctuations: The market sentiment index surged from 14.2 to 50.1 in a short period before dropping sharply to 36.2, indicating extreme instability in market sentiment [Source]. If the sentiment index experiences another one-day fluctuation of over 30 points, coupled with abnormal whale activity, it could lead to severe price volatility. Investors are advised to reduce leverage to avoid being swept out of the market.

2. Risk of Concentrated Unlock Selling Pressure: On July 16, multiple mainstream and mid-cap tokens (ROLL, ARB, GPS, AGT) will unlock, with a total value of millions of dollars, which could lead to localized liquidity shortages [Source]. If these tokens fall by more than 10% on the unlock day accompanied by high trading volumes, it could affect other assets in the same sector. It is recommended to avoid investing in related sectors in advance.

3. Risk of OverSupply and Failed Demand Validation: Although Worldcoin has reduced issuance by 43%, the 4.9 billion existing tokens remain substantial. If World ID fails to prove the commercial viability of its biometric verification technology, it could result in long-term price declines [Source]. If the WLD price remains below its pre-unlock level for three consecutive days after July 24 without any substantial positive factors, it is advisable to reassess its long-term investment value.