XRP ETF Inflows Stall as Technical Breakdown Targets $1

Woofun AI reports that XRP has fractured its primary technical support structure, a development highlighted by CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha and corroborated by SoSoValue flow data. The asset’s price action has decisively failed to hold the rising support line that had previously defined a period of consolidation, triggering a bearish resolution to an ascending triangle pattern. This breakdown is not merely a minor pullback but a structural invalidation that aligns with a concurrent pause in institutional demand and divergent on-chain reserve movements across major exchanges. The convergence of these technical and fundamental dislocations suggests that the upward trajectory maintained since the start of the consolidation phase has been permanently compromised, leaving the asset vulnerable to further downside pressure.

Woofun AI data shows that the technical deterioration is anchored by a decisive break below the rising trendline, with the current price sitting approximately $0.10 beneath where the support level now projects. This breach occurs while XRP already trades below its 50-day moving average, which is positioned near $1.1. Prior to this breakdown, the asset was compressing within a range defined by the rising support line and a horizontal ceiling, with whale accumulation pushing prices toward the $1.16 breakout trigger.

The pattern had maintained a sequence of higher lows, indicative of buyer strength, but the closure outside the lower boundary signals that sellers have overwhelmed buyers at this critical juncture. By slicing through the former floor, the chart has transformed that support into a new resistance ceiling, compounding the bearish signal already present from the position below the 50-day average. This structural shift reinforces the assessment that short-term momentum has flipped bearish, as the asset fails to bounce toward the apex of the pattern.

On-chain dynamics further complicate the narrative, revealing divergent behaviors in exchange reserves that do not point to a uniform market direction. Data shared by CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha indicates that reserves are moving in different directions depending on the venue. Upbit has seen its XRP reserves slide to a multi-month low, suggesting significant outflows or consumption. In contrast, Binance remains well below its March high, indicating a sustained reduction in assets held on the platform over a longer timeframe.

Meanwhile, Bithumb reserves have returned close to their late-May level, showing a reversion to previous states rather than a clear trend. While reserve declines alone do not definitively determine whether XRP is being moved into self-custody, transferred between platforms, or redistributed elsewhere, this divergence is a relevant input alongside the technical breakdown. The lack of uniformity in reserve movements prevents a simple narrative of mass withdrawal or accumulation, adding a layer of uncertainty to the immediate supply dynamics.

Institutional interest appears to have stalled, providing no counterweight to the technical weakness. Flows into spot XRP ETFs have paused, with daily net inflows registering at $0.00 for three consecutive sessions from July 22 through July 24. This stagnation follows a brief period of positive flow, including a $5.66 million inflow on July 21 and $2.49 million on July 20. According to SoSoValue, this pause comes after a stronger stretch earlier in the month, when ETFs logged their largest single-day inflow of July on July 16. The cessation of demand at the precise moment the technical structure is breaking down removes a potential offset to the price action. While the pause in ETF inflows does not by itself confirm further downside, it eliminates a key source of buying pressure that could have supported the price during this vulnerable technical phase.

Looking ahead, the path to recovery is steep, with reclaiming the broken trendline now overhead near $1.15–$1.17 serving as the first major hurdle. A successful reclaim would repair the structure and open the possibility of a retest of the pattern’s flat ceiling, though the 50-day average remains the immediate obstacle. Short of such a reclaim, any price bounce must be interpreted as relief within an invalidated setup rather than a genuine recovery. Continued weakness exposes the $1 psychological zone, which also aligns with the pattern’s measured-move target.

A close below this level would mark the first sub-dollar print since the consolidation began, a significant milestone arriving alongside Upbit’s reserves at multi-month lows and ETF demand on pause. Ascending triangles resolve upward more often than downward, making this clean break lower a meaningful and rare tell. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 44, below its signal line, pointing to fading momentum rather than an oversold bounce setup. With price remaining below all three major moving averages and the structural integrity of the uptrend compromised, the $1 level stands as the next critical target for potential downside.