Clearing Act Odds Drop to 30%: Why Bitcoin May Rally on Surprise Passage

Woofun AI reports that the legislative window for the Clearing Act in the U.S. Senate is contracting rapidly, with Galaxy Digital and Blockchain Knight highlighting the diminishing likelihood of enactment before the upcoming recess.

The probability metrics for the bill’s success have deteriorated significantly, with Galaxy Digital lowering its estimate of passage by 2026 to just 30%.

Concurrently, market pricing mechanisms have reflected this pessimism, dropping to a historic low of 32%, indicating that investors have largely discounted the near-term viability of the legislation.

Procedurally, the path to enactment is obstructed by complex Senate rules that mandate a full-floor debate, followed by a vote to end debate and the consideration of amendments. To complete voting before the end of July, both parties must reach an agreement immediately, yet the Senate’s schedule is already saturated with high-priority items such as sanctions against Russia and critical budget bills. Advancing the Clearing Act would require displacing these existing priorities, a move that is nearly impossible without utilizing a unanimous consent procedure to expedite the process.

Woofun AI data shows that partisan arithmetic further complicates the legislative landscape, as Republicans, despite holding 53 seats in the Senate, face internal dissent that limits their support to approximately 50 votes. Since 60 votes are required to pass the bill, Democratic senators are essential to its success; however, those involved in negotiations have stated that the current draft contains numerous unresolved issues, making compromise unlikely.

Timeline risks are exacerbated by the Senate majority leader’s public assertion that all legislative procedures cannot be completed before the summer recess. If negotiations drag on until September, the risk of the bill being shelved until next year increases significantly, although a low-probability scenario exists where a rapid compromise on core disputes could allow for a unanimous consent procedure to speed up voting.

Wall Street remains divided on the bill’s merits, with Goldman Sachs’ CEO explicitly supporting its advancement to establish a unified market framework, even if imperfect. In contrast, major institutions like JPMorgan adopt a cautious or opposing stance, primarily concerned with limiting the impact of stablecoins on traditional deposits, reflecting a broader institutional hesitation regarding regulatory clarity.

Conversely, the crypto industry, including Andreessen Horowitz, Coinbase, and Galaxy Digital, is aggressively advocating for the bill’s passage to fill a regulatory gap in the U.S. These entities argue that clear rules will reduce policy uncertainties for institutional entry, thereby fostering innovation and legitimizing the sector for broader financial participation.

If the Clearing Act fails to pass this year, the U.S. crypto market will remain in a state of regulatory ambiguity, potentially driving capital and resources to jurisdictions with clearer frameworks, such as Singapore and the EU. This uncertainty may also slow the pace of institutional capital inflows, causing traditional financial institutions to develop spot ETFs more cautiously, although Charles Schwab’s quantitative research shows that fluctuations in passage probability only result in an 8% daily price change for Bitcoin.

Market sentiment exhibits asymmetry, as the negative factors of a delay have been largely absorbed, leaving positive factors to potentially drive a rally if the bill passes unexpectedly. This dynamic suggests that Bitcoin may not crash on a failure but could spike on a surprise victory, a nuance often overlooked by traders. Small steps every day lead to great achievements. Reads: 95. Published on July 29, 2026, at 09:21.