Bitcoin Holds $65K Amid AI Selloff: Fed Decision And Inflation Data To Decide Next Move

Woofun AI reports that Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market demonstrated notable resilience on Monday, maintaining stability even as AI-linked tech stocks faced significant downward pressure. This divergence highlights a potential shift in market dynamics, with digital assets showing less correlation to traditional risk assets during periods of volatility. The core narrative now centers on whether this independence is sustainable or merely a temporary pause before a broader correction, with the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision serving as the primary catalyst for the next phase of price action. Market strategist Joel Kruger of LMAX Group emphasized that this recent stability supports the argument that digital assets are beginning to decouple, at least marginally, from conventional equity markets.

Price action data reveals that BTC held firmly around the $65,000 mark, representing a 4% gain since Friday, while ether (ETH) reached its strongest price level in nearly two months. This performance stood in stark contrast to the broader technology sector, where Nvidia’s 4.8% decline dragged down AI-favorite stocks. Despite this weakness, the Nasdaq remained approximately flat, buoyed by gains in hyperscalers such as Apple, Microsoft, and Google. The ability of Bitcoin to maintain its value while major tech indices struggled suggests a nuanced market structure where crypto is no longer strictly tethered to the performance of big tech.

However, this resilience is poised to face its most rigorous test in the coming days, as macroeconomic data and corporate earnings could quickly reverse current trends.

From a technical perspective, analysts are closely monitoring key resistance levels that could signal a breakout from the multi-week consolidation that has capped prices since June. Joel Kruger indicated that Bitcoin must clear the $67,300 threshold to confirm a bullish continuation, a move that would likely initiate the next leg of higher prices. Similarly, ether faces a critical test at the $2,000 level, with its relative strength against Bitcoin serving as a broader indicator of market health. Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, pointed to the ETH-BTC ratio climbing to a three-month high on Monday as a bullish signal for crypto markets. This ratio, which measures the price of ether in bitcoin, suggests that capital is rotating into alternative cryptocurrencies, potentially signaling increased confidence in the broader digital asset ecosystem beyond just Bitcoin.

Woofun AI data shows. Conversely, bearish signals and on-chain data present a more cautious outlook, with some experts arguing that the recent rebound lacks the buying conviction typically seen before sustained rallies. Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard stated that the market is holding range without strong buyers, rather than building momentum toward a breakout. His base case remains a pullback toward the $52,000-$58,000 zone unless market conditions significantly improve. While nearly 9,000 BTC left exchanges over the past week, open interest in bitcoin futures has fallen even as prices edged higher, suggesting that traders are reducing exposure rather than adding fresh bullish bets. Order-book data also continues to point to net selling pressure, reinforcing the view that the current price stability may be fragile and driven more by short-term positioning than long-term accumulation.

The upcoming week is packed with high-stakes macroeconomic catalysts that will likely dictate the direction of risk assets. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and accompanying communication will set the tone for market sentiment, with investors keenly watching for any hints of future policy shifts. Thursday brings the core PCE inflation report and second-quarter GDP data, both of which are critical indicators of economic health and inflation trends.

Additionally, earnings reports from major technology giants including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will provide insight into the profitability and growth prospects of the AI sector. These events will culminate on Friday with the expiry of roughly $13-14 billion in bitcoin and ether options, a period that often sees heightened volatility as market makers adjust their positions to hedge against potential price swings.

For the market to transition from a positioning bounce to a sustained uptrend, Nansen analysts argue that several key conditions must be met. Specifically, the firm wants to see stronger stablecoin inflows to exchanges, which would indicate fresh capital entering the market. Sustained buying pressure from spot bitcoin ETFs is also crucial, as institutional demand has become a significant driver of price action.

Furthermore, signs that long-term holders have stopped selling at a loss would suggest that the market has cleared out weak hands and is ready for a more robust rally. Until these conditions are satisfied, the recent recovery is likely to remain vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks and technical breakdowns, leaving Bitcoin’s next move largely dependent on the interplay between Fed policy, inflation data, and institutional flow dynamics.