Bitcoin Rebounds to $65K but Faces $67K Whale Barrier and Liquidation Risks

Woofun AI reports that Bitcoin has stabilized near $65,000, reclaiming key technical levels, but faces a critical test at the $67,000 whale cost-basis barrier amid heightened liquidation risks. This price action is being closely monitored by analysts Joao Wedson, CryptoQuant, and Santiment, who highlight the complex interplay between technical support, on-chain data, and the recent Coldcard security incident.

The structural evolution of monthly lows reveals a shifting market dynamic. In June, Bitcoin touched approximately $57,900, followed by a nearly identical low of $57,750 in July, with the two troughs separated by a mere $150. August has introduced a distinct pattern, establishing a current monthly low near $62,200. This figure sits more than $4,000 above the June-July floor, suggesting a higher low formation.

However, this structure remains provisional until the month closes, as the market has exhibited less downside follow-through compared to the previous two months.

Technical support levels are converging in a critical zone. The 50-month SMA currently rests near $60,800, a level Bitcoin breached during the recent correction before recovering. This average aligns closely with the lower boundary of the long-term rising channel, creating a robust support region. A monthly close above the 50-month SMA would significantly strengthen the thesis that the June-July lows marked the definitive bottom of the correction, providing a foundation for further upside.

On-chain metrics reinforce the significance of this support zone. CryptoQuant analysis indicates that the realized price of Binance user deposit addresses is approximately $61,500. Although Bitcoin dipped below this mark, it subsequently recovered, demonstrating resilience. The $61,500 figure represents a cost basis rather than visible buy-side liquidity, yet CryptoQuant notes that recent declines into this area have been met with relief buying. Consequently, the $60,800-$61,500 region, where the 50-month SMA and cost basis intersect, is a pivotal area to watch during any pullback.

Woofun AI data shows that momentum indicators, however, lag behind the price recovery. The Monthly RSI remains around 44, staying below its neutral 50 level. This divergence suggests that while price has stabilized, underlying momentum has not yet confirmed a bullish reversal. The lack of RSI strength implies that the recovery may still be fragile, requiring sustained buying pressure to validate the higher low structure and push the indicator into positive territory.

Resistance is defined by on-chain cost-basis data from newer market participants. CryptoQuant places the realized price of newer whales near $67,000, a level derived from on-chain acquisition costs rather than traditional chart patterns. This $67,000 mark represents the average entry price for this cohort, which could generate selling pressure as holders approach breakeven. A sustained move above this barrier would clear significant resistance and validate the recovery, whereas a rejection would leave the rebound incomplete and refocus attention on the support levels below.

Network activity has spiked, but the driver is not necessarily new capital. Santiment reported 2.27 million newly created Bitcoin wallets in the latest week, the highest growth in a year, alongside 751,000 active wallets, the strongest level in 10 months. Santiment attributes much of this surge to the Coldcard security incident, which prompted users to move funds and create fresh wallets. This episode has reignited the Bitcoin wallet-versus-ETF debate, highlighting that moving existing coins to new wallets increases network metrics without introducing new investment. Activity after these transfers subside will provide a clearer signal of genuine network usage.

Leverage risks remain a critical downside variable. Joao Wedson warns that the $57,000 area is concerning due to the dominance of unliquidated long positions over shorts. He compares the current setup to Bitcoin's 2022 bottom, which was preceded by a major liquidation event. While this does not guarantee another flush, the heavy long positioning means that a sharp decline could force leveraged longs out of the market, adding mechanical selling pressure as Bitcoin approaches the June-July support zone.

A decisive break below the $57,750-$57,900 range could trigger a technical breakdown compounded by forced selling. Below this floor, CryptoQuant identifies miner-related cost bases near $51,000 and long-term holder whale cost bases in the upper-$40,000 range. These deeper levels are not immediate targets but become relevant only if Bitcoin first loses the $60,800-$61,500 support and then breaks the June-July lows, signaling a more severe correction.