The impending public listing of SpaceX on NASDAQ scheduled for June 12 has intensified scrutiny regarding its projected $1.75 trillion market capitalization, which would establish it as the highest-valued IPO in history. This valuation, attributed to the space and AI enterprise led by 马斯克, rests on a financial premise that presents an extraordinary mathematical challenge for investors and analysts alike. Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that achieving this target requires the company to generate $1.1 trillion in revenue by 2035, assuming a conservative 10% annual return expectation over the next decade. This figure significantly surpasses the current revenue benchmark set by Amazon, the United States' top revenue generator, which recorded $742 billion in sales over the past four quarters. Consequently, SpaceX must not only match but exceed Amazon's current scale by nearly 50% within a single decade.

The disparity between current performance and future requirements is stark. In 2025, SpaceX reported revenue of only $18.7 billion while simultaneously incurring a loss of $4.9 billion. Bridging the gap from $18.7 billion to $1.1 trillion represents a 600-fold increase, a feat that necessitates sustaining an average annual revenue growth rate of approximately 50% for ten consecutive years. To contextualize the difficulty of this trajectory, one must examine recent performance by Nvidia, widely regarded as one of the fastest-growing technology firms globally. Between 2024 and 2025, Nvidia achieved an annual revenue increase of roughly $85 billion, a figure already celebrated by the market.

However, the trajectory required for SpaceX implies an additional annual revenue generation of around $360 billion in the final year alone, spanning 2034 to 2035. This single-year increment would be more than four times the growth achieved by Nvidia in the same period.

The magnitude of this required growth becomes even more apparent when compared to historical industry benchmarks. The projected one-year revenue increase for SpaceX in 2035 would equate to the total revenue growth Amazon achieved over the previous six years. David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs, explicitly stated in his analysis utilizing the Discounted Cash Flow model that such a growth rate lacks any historical precedent. Woofun AI notes that this assessment underscores the extreme improbability of the scenario under standard economic conditions.

Furthermore, viewing this figure through a macroeconomic lens reveals further structural tensions. The Congressional Budget Office projects the United States GDP to reach approximately $46.7 trillion by 2035. If SpaceX achieves its $1.1 trillion revenue target, it would account for 2.4% of the entire U.S. GDP, a concentration of economic output rarely seen in a single private entity.

The implications of such a valuation extend across multiple sectors of the U.S. economy. At the projected $1.1 trillion revenue level, SpaceX's annual income would equal 1.5 times the total revenue of the entire U.S. public utility industry.

Additionally, it would represent 55% of the entertainment industry's total revenue and nearly three-quarters of the entire U.S. transportation industry, which encompasses major players such as Delta Air Lines, CSX, and FedEx. While a large addressable market can theoretically support significant expansion, it invariably attracts intensified competition. Woofun AI analysis suggests that the presence of major competitors like Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, and OpenAI vying for shares in the AI market makes it impossible for every participant to capture a meaningful percentage of the GDP. The S-1 prospectus filed by SpaceX cites a potential AI market size of nearly $30 trillion, yet the sheer volume of competitors implies that individual market shares will likely fall far short of optimistic projections.

A critical structural issue further complicates the valuation model. The 10% annual return expectation utilized in Trainer's calculations is already considered conservative. In standard financial theory, investors typically demand higher returns to compensate for the elevated risks associated with high-growth stocks. Therefore, applying a more realistic risk premium to adjust the return expectation would result in an even higher revenue target for SpaceX, rather than a lower one. This dynamic suggests that the path to a $1.75 trillion valuation is not merely difficult but mathematically precarious under current risk-adjusted models. The convergence of these factors leads to the conclusion that while the IPO represents the largest and most anticipated event in market history, it also stands as the most expensive valuation attempt to date, burdened by growth requirements that defy historical norms.