Galaxy Digital has revised its probability assessment for the Senate passing the CLARITY Act before the end of 2026, lowering the estimate to 60%. This adjustment marks a significant downward shift from the 75% probability the firm assigned on May 22, which itself was an increase from the 55% figure published on May 14 following the Senate Banking markup. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, highlighted in a Friday note that the legislative window is rapidly constricting, with the August recess beginning in late July serving as a hard deadline for floor action. Historical precedents indicate that major legislation rarely advances in the lead-up to midterm elections as lawmakers prioritize campaigning over complex policy maneuvering.

The procedural hurdles remaining for the bill are substantial despite prior committee successes. While the Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees have already passed their respective versions, the legislation requires at least 60 votes on the Senate floor to overcome prolonged debate. Thorn emphasized that Majority Leader John Thune must realistically schedule floor time during July to accommodate the necessary amendment process, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture text, and subsequent House action on any changes. Any delay beyond this month renders the procedural steps incompatible with the remaining calendar before the recess effectively closes the door on passage.

Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that the lack of visible progress in negotiations is a primary driver for the lowered odds. Specific provisions regarding ethics and illicit finance remain unresolved sticking points that have stalled consensus among key stakeholders. Thorn noted that Galaxy would be prepared to revise its probability upward only if Senate leaders commit to passing the bill next month and finalize the specific provisions required to secure lawmaker support. The absence of such commitments or tangible negotiation breakthroughs has forced a more conservative outlook on the bill's trajectory.

This bearish sentiment is echoed by other major financial institutions analyzing the congressional calendar. Analysts at JPMorgan stated on Wednesday that they see less than a 50% chance of the CLARITY Act passing this year, citing the same tightening schedule ahead of the elections.

Concurrently, Matt Hougan, investment chief at Bitwise, expressed a view that is 'less optimistic' regarding the bill's chances, noting that D.C. insiders he consulted place the odds of passage between 5% and 30%. These diverging yet generally pessimistic assessments underscore the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the final legislative outcome.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has intensified her public advocacy to counteract these declining expectations. She has made at least 15 posts on X regarding the legislation in June alone, urging the chamber to move forward. On Sunday, she posted that the bill passed committee and that the floor vote is the next critical step, stating, 'We did not come this far to quit at the 5 yard line.' Her public pressure aims to maintain momentum despite the procedural and political headwinds identified by market analysts.

Woofun AI observes that Lummis acknowledged in a Wednesday interview with CNBC that lawmakers are actively addressing the contentious issues of ethics and illicit finance that could otherwise cause the bill to lose support during a floor vote. The resolution of these specific provisions is now the focal point for determining whether the 60-vote threshold can be met. As the July deadline approaches, the interplay between legislative procedure, political campaigning, and unresolved policy details will dictate whether the CLARITY Act achieves its goal or stalls indefinitely.

The convergence of these factors suggests a critical juncture for crypto market structure regulation. If the Senate fails to schedule floor time in July, the August recess will likely prevent any meaningful progress until the next session, effectively resetting the timeline for the bill. The market's reaction to these shifting probabilities will depend heavily on whether Senate leadership can demonstrate a concrete path to reconciliation and passage before the calendar constraints become insurmountable.