Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
ActiveAIUSATechlist
Open 2026-07-13Ends 2027-06-30
#55
CATL
51.5%+1.5%
0
Alibaba
51%+2%
#11
DJI
47.5%+6%
#44
Tencent
45%+1.5%
01
AI Quick Read
WOOFUN AI
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Updated Aug 16, 2026 06:55 GMT+8
This betting market predicts whether a specific company will be removed from the list of “Chinese military companies” published by the U.S. Department of Defense by June 30, 2027. The current market shows a roughly 14% preference for a “YES” outcome, indicating a general expectation that the likelihood of this happening is low. The key point to watch is whether there will be a record of the target company being actually removed from the lists issued by the Department of Defense in the future.
02
Prediction Probability Trend
Alibaba51%CATL49%CXMT47%YMTC46%Unitree40%Baidu39%
Loading...
03
Candidate Outcomes · Price Tiers
10 tiers
Candidate TierProbability24HVolumeOdds
CATL5
51.5%
+1.5%
$1.47K
YES 51¢NO 49¢
Alibaba0
51%
+2%
$10.67K
YES 51¢NO 49¢
DJI1
47.5%
+6%
$2.89K
YES 47¢NO 53¢
Tencent4
45%
+1.5%
$957.17
YES 45¢NO 55¢
Baidu7
45%
+3.5%
$750.36
YES 45¢NO 55¢
YMTC2
40%
-4%
$1.08K
YES 40¢NO 60¢
Unitree9
39.5%
-6.5%
$890.82
YES 39¢NO 61¢
10 candidate tiers · Total volume $247.00MOpen interest $2.04M · Each tier settles YES/NO independently
04
Market Rules & Background
Polymarket
No market rules.
Market Open Time2026-07-13 23:03:36
Settlement Date2027-06-30
Settlement Source--
Resolver--
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list.
A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting.
Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries.
An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed.
A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn.
For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal.
If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).
Experimental AI summary based on Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and does not affect how this market settles.
Updated Aug 16, 2026 GMT+8 06:55
Comments
No comments yet.