Fed Rate Hike Odds Drop to 41.5% as July CPI Data Approaches

Prediction market data shows 'no rate hike' probability rising to 43.1% amid weak July employment and stable inflation expectations, reducing urgency for September action.

Woofun AI data shows that on Polymarket, the probability of the Federal Reserve conducting a rate hike in 2026 has shifted to 58.5% for 'yes' and 43.1% for 'no,' following a $9.6k bet by user DancewithRisk on the 'no' outcome. Since the start of 2026, the Fed has maintained the funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, leaving it unchanged in July despite three members advocating for a 25 basis point increase. Recent labor data indicates non-farm employment fell by 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% and three-month average job creation dropping to approximately 20,000. Inflation expectations from the New York Fed survey have declined, with one-year outlooks at 3.6%. The upcoming July CPI release on August 12 is expected to show a 3.4% year-on-year increase, while Brent crude prices rose to $88.00 per barrel.