S&P 500 Gains 1% if Core CPI Stays Below 0.25%, JPMorgan Analysis

JPMorgan outlines market reaction scenarios for tonight's CPI, projecting S&P 500 gains up to 1% if core inflation remains under 0.25%, with losses expected above that threshold.

Woofun AI data shows JPMorgan's trading desk updated its scenario analysis for the upcoming CPI release. The bank projects the S&P 500 could rise by 0.5% to 1% if core CPI lands between 0.15% and 0.20%. Even within the 0.20% to 0.25% baseline range, a gain of 0.25% to 0.75% is anticipated. Conversely, a core CPI reading between 0.25% and 0.30% could trigger a drop of 0.5% to 1.25% in the index.