Hormuz Strait Closure Odds Drop to 50% by Year End as Near-Term Contracts Hit Zero

Polymarket contracts for Strait of Hormuz shipping normalization collapsed sequentially. Near-term deadlines hit 0.1%, while the December 31 contract settled at 53.5%, reflecting persistent market uncertainty.

Woofun AI data shows that Polymarket contracts regarding the normalization of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have declined sequentially over five weeks. Contracts with nearer deadlines, including those for June 15 and July 15, dropped to a floor price of 0.1%. By July 22, the probability for July 31 recovery fell to 1.25%, while the August 31 contract stood at 13.5% and the December 31 contract at 53.5%. The analysis covers all seven available deadline contracts, noting that daily trading volumes ranged from 78 to 229 transactions. No significant correlation was found between these market prices and oil prices based on 34 daily observations.