High-value 2025 BTC Holdings Drop 41.5% From Peak, Signaling Supply Shift

On-chain data reveals a 41.5% decline in 2025-acquired BTC, leaving 4.77M coins. Analysts note this cohort represents major supply pressure, though institutional locks may mitigate actual sell-side impact.

Woofun AI data shows that all BTC acquired in 2025 remains underwater, with holdings falling 41.5% from the peak recorded in December last year to approximately 4.77 million BTC. On-chain analyst Murphy identifies this cohort as the primary potential supply source, noting that the decline occurred in two phases: a rapid drop before February this year, followed by a slower but persistent decrease. In contrast, BTC accumulated in 2022, 2023, and 2024 has seen selling pressure weaken as profit-taking concludes. Historical precedents indicate high-value holdings dropped 51% at the 2022 bear market bottom and 62% in 2018. Murphy estimates the current 2025 cohort could decline between 50% and 60% at the market bottom, implying further reduction potential beyond the current 41.5% mark.

However, this projection excludes long-term locked assets held by institutions such as spot ETFs and MicroStrategy，which may reduce actual circulating supply pressure.