OpenAI Astra Arena.ai Score Probability Drops 31% in 24 Hours

Polymarket odds for OpenAI Astra exceeding 1,490 on Arena.ai fell 31% in 24 hours to 32%, signaling reduced market confidence in the model's debut performance.

Woofun AI data shows that on Polymarket, the probability of the OpenAI Astra model achieving a minimum score of 1,490 on its Arena.ai debut has declined by 31% over the past 24 hours, settling at 32%. The likelihood of the model scoring at least 140 points also decreased by 17% during the same period, currently standing at 32%. Settlement rules dictate that if an Astra model appears on Arena.ai's official rankings and meets the threshold by 12 p.m. Eastern Time the day after listing, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." AutoEval scores are excluded, and the highest score applies if multiple models rank on the same day. Failure to appear by the end of 2026 results in a "No" settlement.