Ethereum Tests 100-Day SMA Amid Mixed ETF Inflows and Divergent On-Chain Flow Signals

Woofun AI reports that Ethereum faces a critical technical juncture as it attempts to sustain a position above the 100-day SMA, with the outcome of today's daily close serving as the primary determinant for the validity of this recent recovery. The significance of this moment stems from the moving average's role as a persistent ceiling since late July, making the current price action a decisive test of whether bullish momentum can overcome established structural resistance. The market is now waiting to see if the latest upward move represents a genuine breakout or merely another temporary fluctuation within a broader consolidation phase.

The historical context of this resistance level is rooted in the price action observed on July 27, when ETH approached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level near $1,985 before being decisively rejected. Following that rejection, the asset slipped back below the moving average and remained largely suppressed underneath it for several weeks, establishing a pattern of failed recovery attempts. It was only during this week's recovery that price action finally pushed ETH above the average, a position it maintains at the time of writing.

However, with the moving average currently situated at approximately $1,905, it remains in close proximity to the current price, meaning that an intraday dip below this line would not be statistically unusual or necessarily indicative of a trend reversal.

The distinction between intraday volatility and the daily close is crucial for interpreting the strength of the current move. While intraday fluctuations may temporarily breach the moving average, the daily close provides a more definitive signal regarding whether buyers possess the sustained conviction required to maintain the break after multiple previous failures. Momentum indicators have improved in tandem with this price action, offering some supportive evidence for the bullish case. The Daily RSI currently sits around 57, a level that is above the neutral 50 threshold but has not yet reached traditionally overbought territory, suggesting that there is still room for upward movement without immediate exhaustion of buying pressure.

Despite the improved short-term structure, holding the 100-day SMA does not eliminate the presence of more formidable resistance zones ahead. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level remains anchored near $1,985, which aligns almost exactly with the point where the July 27 advance stalled. This specific price area is particularly significant because it overlaps with the broader region from which Ethereum's decline accelerated in early-June, a period that eventually saw ETH trade down toward $1,500. Consequently, buyers are approaching a segment of the chart that has proven pivotal during both the recent recovery efforts and the previous severe selloff, indicating that this zone carries substantial historical weight and potential selling pressure.

A decisive and sustained move above the $1,985 resistance would open the path toward the next major technical target, which is the falling 200-day SMA located near $2,050. Until such a breakout occurs, Ethereum's improvement in short-term structure remains incomplete, as the larger resistance left by the previous decline has not yet been cleared. The market is therefore in a transitional state where technical indicators show promise, but the ultimate validation of a new uptrend depends on overcoming the $1,985 barrier. This dynamic creates a scenario where traders must weigh the potential for further gains against the risk of another rejection at this historically significant level.

On the institutional front, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded roughly $245 million in net inflows over the past week, marking a notable pickup in activity. This increase is particularly significant given the much weaker period for these funds during the summer, a time when outflows repeatedly weighed on the broader flow picture and dampened market sentiment. The current $245 million inflow should therefore be viewed primarily as an improvement from recent weakness rather than as definitive confirmation of a new long-term trend in institutional demand. While it coincides with ETH's attempt to recover the important technical level of the 100-day SMA, it does not necessarily mean that ETF buying directly caused the move, as Ethereum trades across global spot, derivatives, and other markets where diverse factors influence price action.

Per Woofun AI, the on-chain flow data presents a more cautious signal than the price chart or ETF inflows might suggest. CoinGlass data indicates that spot net flow stands at roughly -$24.36 million over the past 24 hours and -$79.91 million over the three-day period, meaning that aggressive selling has consistently outweighed aggressive buying across both time windows. This negative spot flow suggests that despite the price holding above the moving average, there is underlying selling pressure that has not yet been fully absorbed by buyers. The divergence between the positive price action and the negative spot flows highlights a potential disconnect between market sentiment and actual trading behavior, warranting caution among investors who rely on flow data as a leading indicator.

The futures market flow data offers a less clear picture, adding another layer of complexity to the analysis. Three-day net flow in the futures market remains positive at about $407 million, while the latest 24-hour reading is negative by roughly $135 million. This combination does not demonstrate sustained buying pressure across both markets as ETH attempts to hold above the 100-day SMA.

Furthermore, positive futures flow does not necessarily represent traders opening new long positions, as short covering can also generate aggressive buying activity. Therefore, the mixed signals from the futures market, combined with the negative spot flows, suggest that the current rally may lack the broad-based support needed for a sustained upward move.

Ultimately, Ethereum's technical position has improved faster than the supporting flow picture, creating a divergence that requires careful monitoring. ETH is currently above the 100-day SMA, the RSI has recovered above neutral, and ETF flows have picked up after a weak stretch, yet CoinGlass data remains less convincing with negative spot flow over both the 24-hour and three-day periods and no equally clear signal from futures. This discrepancy does not invalidate the price move but indicates that stronger, consistent buying has yet to appear across all examined markets. Today's daily close serves as the first confirmation point; a close above the 100-day SMA would leave ETH in a stronger position to challenge the $1,985 resistance again, while closing back below it would leave the two-week resistance problem unresolved and put the nearby 0.382 Fibonacci area around $1,865-$1,870 back into focus.