Bitcoin Tests $63,800 Support as July PPI Data Could Shift Macro Outlook

Woofun AI reports that macro market sentiment shifted following a decline in US CPI to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, directing trader attention to the upcoming July PPI release. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish the July PPI data at 8:30 a.m. ET, an event poised to clarify the inflation trajectory after recent consumer price fluctuations.

Consensus forecasts project a 0.2% monthly rise in headline prices, contrasting with June's 0.3% decline, while core PPI is anticipated to increase by 0.3%. On an annual basis, headline inflation is expected to ease to approximately 4.9% from the previous 5.5%.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management anticipates that tariffs and energy costs will continue to feed into inflation metrics, potentially driving core inflation back toward 3% by December. The firm suggests the Fed will wait to assess how much of these elevated business costs eventually reach consumers before adjusting policy. Conversely, RBC Economics adopts a more cautious stance, arguing that tariffs and energy expenses are already lifting input costs, with some pressure likely to transmit to consumers. RBC believes this dynamic might be sufficient to prevent the Fed from cutting rates this year, highlighting a divergence in institutional expectations regarding monetary policy.

Woofun AI data shows that survey data provides additional context for these conflicting views. S&P Global's July US PMI indicated input-cost inflation at its highest level since May 2025, with selling-price inflation reaching its strongest point since July 2022. Companies cited energy, shipping, tariffs, and supplier costs as primary drivers. Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid sees less urgency for aggressive action, pointing to encouraging core inflation readings and weaker employment data. In contrast, Bank of America's Stephen Juneau remains more hawkish, seeing room for additional tightening, though he acknowledges the latest inflation data might reduce the magnitude of action ultimately required.

The upcoming PPI release will test these institutional perspectives against hard data. A softer print could reinforce the disinflation signal established by the recent CPI report, suggesting that price pressures are indeed easing across the economy.

However, a hotter core reading might indicate that higher business costs are beginning to penetrate official inflation measures, challenging the narrative of sustained cooling. This dichotomy creates significant uncertainty for market participants who must interpret whether the initial CPI relief was a temporary anomaly or the start of a broader trend.

Bitcoin is currently testing critical technical support levels, with BTC trading around $63,800. The 50-day SMA near $63,400 and the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $63,600 form a dense support area directly beneath the current price. This confluence represents the last strong daily-chart defense before the July swing low situated around $57,500-$57,700. While smaller reaction levels may emerge in the interim, the chart lacks another comparable overlap of Fibonacci and moving-average support before that lower threshold, making the current zone vital for bullish structure.

Resistance is concentrated in the $67,200-$67,300 range, where the 100-day SMA near $67,200 aligns closely with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement close to $67,300. Bitcoin has entered the PPI release with both sides of the immediate range clearly defined by these technical markers. A softer PPI print would align with the direction set by Wednesday's CPI, potentially giving buyers justification to defend the current support. If the market interprets the two reports as evidence of easing inflation pressure, BTC might reverse course toward the $67,200 area.

However, yields and the dollar remain key variables; if macro pressure intensifies due to a hot report, Bitcoin would be vulnerable while leaning on its main nearby support. A decisive loss of support could quickly shift the chart into a defensive setup, with the $63,500 level acting as a pivotal threshold.

A print close to expectations might leave the technical setup largely unchanged, as yesterday's CPI still leans softer, but without a second inflation surprise, traders may lack a clear catalyst to force BTC through either side immediately. For now, the chart presents an unusually clean structure: support sits near $63,500, resistance near $67,200, and PPI arrives directly between them. This precise alignment means the July PPI data will likely dictate the short-term trajectory, with traders watching closely to see if the disinflation narrative holds or if sticky core inflation reignites macro pressure on risk assets.