CLARITY Act Fall Passage Probability Drops to 25% With Final Vote Delayed

TD Cowen assigns only a 25% chance of CLARITY Act enactment this fall, citing Senate disputes over AML rules and potential procedural delays until September.

Woofun AI reports that the likelihood of the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act, or CLARITY Act, becoming law this autumn stands at 25%, according to investment bank TD Cowen. The firm projects a 75% probability that the legislation will not pass this fall, with the next Senate procedural vote anticipated on September 15.

The CLARITY Act seeks to designate the CFTC as the regulator for digital assets while retaining SEC oversight for investment contracts.

However, senators remain divided on amendments concerning ethical standards, the Bank Secrecy Act, and anti-money laundering mandates. TD Cowen outlines three failure scenarios: no September procedural vote, abandonment after initial approval, or debate obstruction due to amendment disputes. The bill previously cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a 15-9 vote.