Goldman Sachs Forecasts Core PCE at 0.23% MoM, Above Consensus

Goldman Sachs projects July core PCE at 0.23% MoM, exceeding CPI and consensus. Methodological shifts may lower annual inflation, supporting stable Fed rates through year-end.

Woofun AI reports that Goldman Sachs anticipates the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index to increase by 0.23% month-on-month in July, a figure surpassing both the core Consumer Price Index and prevailing market consensus. The bank attributes an 8 basis point rise in portfolio management fees to second-quarter equity performance. Goldman Sachs indicates that impending methodological adjustments could introduce volatility into PCE metrics while potentially suppressing the annual inflation rate. The institution forecasts August core inflation near 0.2% and maintains its outlook for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady until the conclusion of the year.