Bitcoin 2025 Holdings Drop 41.5% as Analyst Projects 50-60% Bear Market Bottom Decline

4.77M Bitcoin from 2025 purchases are down 41.5% from peak. Analyst Murphy forecasts bear market bottom decline of 50-60%, noting older holdings show limited supply sensitivity.

Woofun AI notes that analyst Murphy identifies Bitcoin acquired in 2025 as currently operating at a loss, with 4.77 million coins remaining in these positions. This volume reflects a 41.5% reduction from the peak observed in December last year. The decline accelerated prior to February before moderating slightly while maintaining a downward trajectory. These holdings likely constitute the largest supply segment in the current market. In contrast, coins purchased in 2022, 2023, and 2024 have largely navigated the rapid decline phase, with longer holding periods correlating to smaller reductions in coin counts. Murphy suggests that further price drops may have limited impact on these earlier-held coins. The potential decline at this bear market bottom is estimated between 50% and 60%, excluding Bitcoin locked by ETFs and MicroStrategy's 2025 purchases.