Fed September Rate Hold Probability Surges to 74% Across Predictive Markets

Predictive markets price a 74% chance of unchanged Fed rates in September, with $33.9M Polymarket volume and 70% economist consensus supporting status quo.

Woofun AI data shows that predictive markets assign a roughly 74% probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged during its September meeting. Polymarket contracts related to this outcome recorded $33.9 million in trading volume, while CFTC-regulated Kalshi indicated a 73.5% likelihood with nearly $10 million in bets. Dastan's Myriad platform reported a similar 71% probability for no change. The Federal Reserve previously voted 9 to 3 in July to keep rates between 3.50% and 3.75%, with three members favoring a hike. The FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15th to 16th, with a statement expected on September 16th. A survey indicates nearly 70% of economists anticipate rates will remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026.