CLARITY Act Passage Odds Slashed to 10% Amid Senate Crunch

Woofun AI reports that Galaxy Digital has drastically reduced the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 to just 10%, a sharp reversal attributed by firmwide research head Alex Thorn to insurmountable legislative bottlenecks. This steep decline reflects a convergence of tight scheduling constraints and persistent political friction that now defines the bill's trajectory.

The primary obstacle is a severely compressed timeline; with the Senate reconvening on Sept. 14, lawmakers have merely two to three weeks to finalize the legislation.

Woofun AI data shows that unless an immediate motion to proceed is adopted, the bill must 'dominate basically the entire working session' to survive.

Furthermore, legislators must navigate complex ethics rules regarding government officials' crypto involvement and withstand intense pressure from banks opposing stablecoin yield provisions.

This current 10% figure marks a precipitous drop from previous estimates, which stood at 75% on May 22, were adjusted to 60% on June 6, and then to 50% on June 26. Although the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, it faces sustained resistance from most Democrats and the banking industry, who argue the framework allows crypto firms to offer stablecoin yields without adhering to traditional banking requirements.

Despite this legislative stagnation, industry support remains robust, with over 200 crypto companies urging the US Senate to pass the act via a letter circulated by Stand With Crypto. The divergence between strong sector advocacy and waning political viability suggests the US digital assets regulatory framework may remain fragmented for the foreseeable future.