Polymarket WTI Oil $95 Probability Drops 16% to 53%

Betting odds for WTI crude exceeding $95/barrel in July fell 16% to 53%, while $100 odds dropped 13% to 27%, despite geopolitical supply concerns.

Woofun AI data shows that on Polymarket, the probability of WTI crude oil surpassing $95 per barrel in July has declined to 53%, representing a 16% drop over the past 24 hours. Simultaneously, the likelihood of prices breaking $100 per barrel has fallen to 27%, marking a 13% decrease in the same period.

Market sources indicate that oil prices remain on track for a significant weekly gain, maintaining a 10% weekly increase due to escalating disruptions to energy shipments in the Red Sea and concerns over further escalation of the war with Iran. Analyst Janiv Shah stated that ongoing U.S. attacks on Iran, increased Houthi involvement in the Red Sea, and CPC pipeline disruptions are squeezing crude supply, leading to an inevitable price rise. Shah added that current disruption levels in the Strait of Hormuz appear to be approaching peak levels seen in March.