Polymarket Hamas Disarmament Probability Drops 24.5% to 61%

Winning probability for Hamas disarmament by Dec 31, 2026, falls from 85.5% to 61% on Polymarket, reflecting a sharp 24.5% decline in market sentiment.

Woofun AI data shows that the "Yes" option for the event "Hamas agrees to disarm" within the "December 31, 2026" sub-market on Polymarket experienced a significant volatility event. The winning probability decreased from 85.5% to 61% over a one-hour period, representing a 24.5% drop in likelihood.