Polymarket Rate Cut Odds Rise to 7.5% Amid Fed Data Overhaul

A new $1.1k bet pushes 2026 Fed rate cut probability to 7.5%. Weak June jobs and cooling inflation data support the shift, while Warsh’s working group aims to modernize economic signal sources.

Woofun AI reports that a new account placed a $1.1k wager on Polymarket regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in 2026, raising the 'Yes' probability to 7.5% from an average buy-in of 7.0%. Recent economic indicators show mixed signals: June non-farm payrolls added only 57k jobs, missing expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% due to lower labor force participation. Core inflation cooled slightly in June, aided by a nearly 10% drop in gasoline prices.

On July 9, Warsh established the Fed Data Source Working Group to evaluate new information sources and improve the timeliness of policy-relevant economic signals. Warsh’s goal to increase reliance on real-time data within approximately one year. The FOMC maintained rates in a 9-to-3 vote on July 29, with three members favoring a hike, citing inflation above the 2% target. Upcoming July jobs and CPI data are scheduled for August 7 and 12, preceding the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.