Predictive Markets Daily (Issue 19 · Week 30, 2026)

01Popular Prediction Market Events

As of the data benchmark date of 2026-07-25, Polymarket predicts that market attention will focus on macroeconomic policies and geopolitics. Ranked by 24-hour trading volume, the top events are characterized by both high certainty and significant disagreement.

Events with High Certainty

• Continuation of Ceasefire between Israel and Iran: Probability of “Yes” is 87.5%, up 13.0 percentage points in 24 hours, with trading volume at $1549.0K. The market strongly expects the ceasefire to last until 2026-08-31, resulting in a substantial reduction in geopolitical risk premiums.
• Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets: Probability of “Yes” is 76.5%, surging by 19.0 percentage points in 24 hours, with trading volume at $1001.1K. Rapid inflow of sports betting funds has given the Dodgers an edge.
• Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals: Probability of “Yes” is 78.5%, up 26.0 percentage points in 24 hours, with trading volume at $548.5K.

Events with Significant Disagreement

• Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Probability of “Yes” is 54.5%, up 8.0 percentage points in 24 hours, with trading volume at $999.8K. Market opinions are fairly evenly split, leading to intense speculation.
• Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals: Probability of “Yes” is 47.5%, up 8.0 percentage points in 24 hours, with trading volume at $916.6K.
• New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies: Probability of “Yes” is 51.5%, up 3.0 percentage points in 24 hours, with trading volume at $710.5K.

Indirect Impacts from Macroeconomics and Cryptocurrency

• Federal Reserve’s Decision in July: Probability of “Yes” is 73.4%, with trading volume at $2928.7K. Although the current probability is below 75%, recent data shows that the likelihood of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike has risen from 3.9% to 24.8% within a week. If the Federal Reserve takes a more hawkish stance, it could suppress risk assets and put downward pressure on BTC’s current price of $64,026.00.
• United States Invading Iran: Probability of “Yes” is 30.5%, with outstanding contracts worth $7220.7K. The low probability combined with high outstanding contract values indicates long-term market concerns about escalating geopolitical conflicts. If this probability rises sharply, fear of uncertainty could boost demand for BTC.

02Odds Analysis and Market Interpretation

03Odds Analysis and Market Interpretation

Reference Date: 2026-07-25

Federal Reserve’s July Decision: Expectations of Rate Cuts Dominate

For the “Fed Decision in July?” question, the probability of a “Yes” outcome is 73.4%, down slightly by 0.3 percentage points in 24 hours, with an open interest of $17,625.2K. This high implied probability indicates that the market is confident the Federal Reserve will adopt a dovish stance. Those betting on a “Yes” are relying on declining inflation and weak employment data, expecting rate cuts to stimulate the economy; those betting on a “No” are concerned that geopolitical risks could drive up oil prices, raising the probability of rate hikes from 3.9% to 24.8%. The current BTC price is $64,026.00. If rate cuts are implemented, improved liquidity expectations will support a rebound in crypto assets, showing a positive correlation between the two.

Ceasefire between Israel and Iran: Premium for Geopolitical Relaxation

Regarding the question “Will the Israel x Iran ceasefire continue through...?”, the probability of a “Yes” outcome has surged to 87.5%, jumping by 13.0 percentage points in 24 hours. Although earlier reports suggested the probability of a ceasefire by August 31 was as low as 51%, the latest data from Polymarket shows a significant easing of tensions in the short term. Those betting on a “Yes” are hoping for diplomatic breakthroughs that will reduce war risks, benefiting risk assets; those betting on a “No” are worried about renewed conflicts. The high probability of a ceasefire reduces fear-driven buying, providing support for risk assets like BTC and offsetting some macroeconomic headwinds.

Sports Betting: Capital Reallocation Effect

For MLB games such as “Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets”, the probability of a “Yes” outcome is 76.5%, rising sharply by 19.0 percentage points in 24 hours, with trading volume reaching $1,001.1K. Such highly volatile sports markets attract a large amount of short-term speculative capital, which may draw liquidity away from the crypto market. Although it has nothing to do with macro fundamentals, the high trading volume indicates active market risk appetite, with capital rapidly shifting between low-risk (sports) and high-risk (crypto) assets.

Overall Sentiment Assessment

The current prediction market shows a bullish sentiment. The high probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts and expectations of a geopolitical ceasefire together provide support at the bottom. Although BTC faces short-term pressure, there are clear macroeconomic positives, giving “Yes” options an advantage in pricing during key macro events.

04Operation suggestions

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Operational Recommendations

• Macroeconomic Hedging: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in July has risen to 24.8%. If this probability exceeds 30%, adopt a more defensive stance and avoid assets with high Beta values.
• Event-Driven Strategies: The probability of a ceasefire between Iran and its opponents by July 27th has increased to 70.5%. If the probability drops below 60% as the deadline approaches, gradually reduce positions in geographically sensitive assets.
• Price Action Strategies: The probability of BTC breaking above $66,000 has risen to 33.5%. If BTC, currently trading at $64,026.00, breaks above $65,000 on high volume, consider building positions in stages to capture short-term momentum.

Risk Warnings

• Liquidity Shock: Sudden increases in Whale activity by 46–60 points [Emotional Volatility]. If this is accompanied by abnormally high 24-hour trading volume for BTC at $26.4B, be vigilant against sharp price fluctuations.
• Emotional Reversal: The market sentiment index stands at 43/100 [Sentiment]. If the index falls below 35, strictly adhere to stop-loss rules.
• Policy Risks: Unusual large-scale fund movements by British politicians. Pay attention to compliance risks arising from sudden changes in regulatory policies.