Weekly Derivatives Market Report (Issue 8 · Week 28, 2026)
The report in three sentences
Based on all eight chapters20260709: The cryptocurrency derivatives market exhibited a clear bullish-dominated trend, with funding rates and open interest data confirming active leveraged buying. The BTC funding rate was 0.0046%, while both ETH and SOL were at 0.0041%. Positive funding rates indicate that bulls need to pay a premium to bears, reflecting strong short-term bullish sentiment in the market. In terms of open interest, BTC’s OI reached $45.74B, ETH’s was $23.85B, and SOL’s was $5.34B. The high open interest combined with positive funding rates suggests that a large amount of leveraged capital is betting on price increases. The ratio of long-to-short accounts further reveals the market dynamics.
The market is characterized by strong bullish sentiment in the short term, with bulls clearly dominating the landscape.
01Overview of the Derivatives Market
On 2026-07-09, the cryptocurrency derivatives market exhibited a clear bullish dominance. Data on funding rates and open interest confirmed active leverage buying. The BTC funding rate was 0.0046%, while ETH and SOL both stood at 0.0041%. Positive funding rates indicate that bulls must pay a premium to bears, reflecting strong short-term bullish sentiment in the market. In terms of open interest, BTC’s OI reached $45.74B, ETH’s was $23.85B, and SOL’s was $5.34B. The high open interest combined with positive funding rates suggests that a large amount of leveraged capital is betting on price increases.
The ratio of long to short accounts further revealed an imbalanced market structure. For BTC, the ratio was 63.8% long/36.2% short; for ETH, it was 67.2% long/32.8% short; and for SOL, it even reached 68.9% long/31.1% short. SOL had the highest proportion of bulls, indicating that this asset enjoys stronger speculative interest in derivatives markets. Although the spot prices of BTC ($62,121.00, down 2.2% in 24 hours) and ETH ($1,738.88, down 2.1% in 24 hours) saw slight declines, the bullish congestion in derivatives markets did not diminish significantly. This divergence between falling spot prices and accumulating bullish positions in derivatives could increase the risk of short-term pullbacks or trigger stop-loss liquidations by bulls. Overall, the market has a high level of leverage and a generally optimistic sentiment, but caution is needed regarding potential volatility due to the high proportion of bulls.
02Funding Rate and Position Analysis
Benchmark date: 2026-07-09
The funding rate for BTC was 0.0046%, while that for ETH and SOL was both 0.0041%. All rates remained in positive territory, indicating that bulls need to pay fees to bears, suggesting an optimistic short-term market sentiment. The rate levels were at a moderate premium, with no signs of extreme overheating, implying that leveraged bulls are not overly concentrated, and the market maintains a relatively rational pricing mechanism amid price fluctuations.
In terms of holding amounts, BTC dominated with $45.74B, followed by ETH at $23.85B and SOL at $5.34B. The holding sizes of BTC and ETH were significantly higher than those of SOL, reflecting that institutional funds and mainstream liquidity remain highly concentrated in leading assets. Although SOL had a lower absolute holding amount, its funding rate was on par with ETH, suggesting it has attracted attention from certain speculative funds in high-volatility environments.
The ratio of long to short accounts further confirmed a market structure dominated by bulls. For BTC, the ratio was 63.8% long/36.2% short; for ETH, it was 67.2% long/32.8%; and for SOL, it reached 68.9% long/31.1%. SOL had the highest proportion of long positions, indicating relatively stronger speculative enthusiasm, but it also meant potential downward pressure could be greater. Overall, all three cryptocurrencies showed a bullish bias among long positions, yet the funding rates did not surge significantly, suggesting that current long holdings are more driven by trend following rather than extreme short-selling activities. Market sentiment remains cautiously bullish.
03Liquidation and Leverage Risks
Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09
The total settlement amount across the entire market in the past 24 hours reached $147,692,351.46640402, with long positions accounting for 83.0% of settlements and short positions accounting for 17.0%, indicating that downward pressure in the market is primarily concentrated among long-leveraged positions. In terms of specific cryptocurrencies, WIF had the highest settlement volume at $193,095.58605881, of which $186,847.5373576 came from long position settlements and $6,248.04870121 from short position settlements. LTC followed closely, with a total settlement volume of $131,765.03409, including $125,180.39831 in long position settlements and $6,584.63578 in short position settlements.
PLAY and CATI also showed significant settlement patterns. PLAY had a total settlement volume of $50,728.6745839, with $43,982.1672921 coming from long position settlements and $6,746.5072918 from short position settlements. CATI’s total settlement volume was $50,384.9766698, comprising $50,006.6870406 in long position settlements and $378.2896292 in short position settlements. Additionally, FOGO had a total settlement volume of $39,891.023527800004, with $39,885.9723278 from long position settlements and $5.0512 from short position settlements.
USAR and PARTI also recorded relatively high settlement amounts. USAR’s total settlement volume was $13,875.9211642, all of which were from long position settlements. PARTI’s total settlement volume was $17,468.638312000003, with $17,352.389812 from long position settlements and $116.2485 from short position settlements. AIXBT had a total settlement volume of $15,199.1889954, including $13,837.8889914 from long position settlements and $1,361.300004 from short position settlements.
Among other cryptocurrencies, HUMA had a total settlement volume of $8,943.3718533, with $8,775.5895657 from long position settlements and $167.7822876 from short position settlements. JPM had a total settlement volume of $5,297.0291606, including $5,099.2611606 from long position settlements and $197.768 from short position settlements. JOE had a total settlement volume of $4,469.6531524, all of which were from long position settlements. RIVN also had a total settlement volume of $5,362.7646358, entirely from long position settlements. NVO had a total settlement volume of $1,044.5977217, all from long position settlements. PROM had a total settlement volume of $1,873.72619144, with $1,856.09939144 from long position settlements and $17.6268 from short position settlements. LSK had a total settlement volume of $1,327.9877000000001, including $1,271.7469 from long position settlements and $56.2408 from short position settlements. BB had a total settlement volume of $1,280.5568562, all from long position settlements. WAXP had a total settlement volume of $376.2939083, entirely from long position settlements. BMNR had a total settlement volume of $285.3984, all from long position settlements. AT had a total settlement volume of $177.7706, all from long position settlements. DOLO had a total settlement volume of $23.09736, all from long position settlements.
Overall, long position settlements dominate absolutely, indicating that the current market’s leverage structure is fragile with concentrated downward risks. Cryptocurrencies with high volatility such as WIF, LTC, and PLAY have become hotspots for settlements, warranting caution regarding potential chain reactions caused by further price fluctuations.
04Emotions and Capital Flows
Current market sentiment is characterized as neutral to cautious, with the sentiment index at 45/100 and the fear index at 36/100, while the neutrality index stands at 47/100. In terms of capital flows, BlackRock’s IBIT product withdrew 883.6 BTC (worth $54.8 million) from Coinbase, indicating active buying by institutional investors. On the narrative front, ETH is considered to be in the second least undervalued range in history, attracting attention from bulls. Popular topics include losses incurred by TRUMP tokens, financing for AI computing infrastructure, Chainlink’s cross-chain integration, the implementation of stablecoin regulatory frameworks, and the surge in meme coins within the Solana ecosystem, reflecting the market’s balance between macro-regulation and ecological applications.
05Outlook and Risks
Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09
Neutral Outlook: The current price of BTC is $62,121.00, with 24-hour trading volume at $27.5B. The market is showing signs of consolidation at higher levels, as short-term divergences between bulls and bears intensify.
! Risk Warning: Strategy has broken its “never sell crypto” rule by obtaining approval to sell $1.25 billion worth of assets, and the actual scale of sales could exceed $3 billion, posing significant supply-side pressure.
- Positive Signals: Vanguard is urgently recruiting a head for digital assets, indicating that traditional asset management giants are shifting their strategies toward crypto. This enhances expectations of long-term institutional capital entering the market.
Key Observations
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Supply-Side Pressure and Liquidity Dynamics To address the annual dividend payment of $1.26 billion related to STRC preferred stocks, Strategy has launched a Bitcoin monetization plan. This move alters the market’s long-standing expectation of “only buying, never selling,” and may suppress BTC’s upward momentum in the short term. Confidence level: High. It is essential to closely monitor the actual pace of sales and market absorption.
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Strategic Shifts by Traditional Financial Giants Vanguard, which has long resisted crypto, is now actively pursuing tokenization and stablecoins, signaling an increasing acceptance of crypto assets among traditional financial institutions. This trend could bring in long-term incremental funds, but in the short term, it mainly reflects positive sentiment rather than direct capital inflows. Confidence level: Medium.
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Reconfiguration of Interests in the Stablecoin Sector Coinbase, in collaboration with 140 institutions, has launched OUSD, challenging USDT’s dominance and causing Circle’s stock price to drop by 16%. The increasing competition among stablecoin issuers and distributors may affect the market’s liquidity structure. Confidence level: Medium.
Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Probability | Trigger Conditions | Price Path | Response Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optimistic | 30% | Institutions like Vanguard accelerate their crypto investments, and ETF inflows turn positive | Break above resistance levels and rise toward key support levels | Build positions in stages, paying attention to signals of institutional capital inflows |
| Neutral | 50% | Strategy’s selling pressure is gradually absorbed by the market, with BTC fluctuating around $62,121.00 | Sideways movement around current prices, with increased volatility within the range | Adopt a moderate defensive stance and avoid high-leverage operations |
| Pessimistic | 20% | Strategy’s large-scale sales trigger a chain reaction, leading to continuous net outflows from ETFs | Drop below key support levels in search of new equilibrium points | Gradually reduce positions and hold cash until stability is restored |
Major Risk Factors
- Supply-Side Shock: The actual scale of Strategy’s sales could exceed $3 billion, and if released all at once, it could trigger panic-driven selling in the market.
- Policy Uncertainty: Political controversies surrounding crypto earnings of Trump family members, along with proposals by senators to ban officials from issuing crypto, could lead to stricter regulations.
- Intensifying Competition in Stablecoins: The launch of OUSD may draw away liquidity from USDT, affecting overall market stability.
06Related Reads
- “140 million in crypto profits deemed legal, yet fierce conflicts erupt within the family”
- “Trump’s Bitcoin reserves face hurdles: Treasury’s authority in question, Commerce Department as a candidate”
- “Battle over ownership of 390,000 dormant BTCs: Digital business associations resist lawsuits in New York State”
- “Asset management giants rush to hire new leaders: From rejecting crypto to pursuing tokenization”
- “From calling Bitcoin a scam to embracing it as key asset—out of fear of China taking the lead”
- “Secrets behind Strategy’s coin sales: 1.25 billion limit is just the tip of the iceberg”
- “Annual dividends of 1.26 billion: Strategy breaks its ‘never sell coins’ rule and initiates monetization”
- “Coinbase teams up with 140 giants to create OUSD; Circle’s stock plummets 16% in the ensuing struggle”
- “Senator proposes banning officials from issuing coins, targeting Trump family’s 140 million in profits”
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