ETH Ecosystem Weekly Report (Issue 9 · Week 28, 2026)

01Market Review

ETH has shown an upward trend with fluctuations this week, with the weekly gain confirming short-term bullish momentum.

As of July 9, 2026, ETH’s current price is $1,738.45, with a 24-hour decline of -2.4%, but a 7-day increase of +7.3% (indicating strong overall momentum during the week, and that short-term pullbacks do not reverse the weekly upward trend). This week, ETH’s 24-hour trading volume reached $10.3B (reflecting active market activity and ample liquidity). Although market sentiment was neutral on July 8, 2026 (47/100), pushing ETH down to $1,738, it maintained relative resilience amid BTC’s volatility from July 6 to July 7, 2026, with a daily decline of only 2.09% on July 7 (showing limited selling pressure and effective support levels). On-chain data shows that Ethereum withdrawals hit a three-year high on July 5, 2026, with Binance experiencing a surge in net outflows of 123 million in just one week (indicating increased willingness to hold assets on-chain and reduced selling pressure from exchanges). Additionally, $370 million worth of liquidations occurred in the market on July 7, 2026, of which ETH bears suffered losses of $130 million (showing strong pressure on bearish positions and sufficient momentum for a short-term rebound).

• Pay attention to the impact of Vitalik Buterin’s four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum on the realization of institutional settlement visions. • Monitor potential changes in capital flows resulting from a sudden 60-point increase in Whale activity on the blockchain.

02ETH Collateralization and Liquidity

July 9, 2026, serves as the data benchmark date.

From the perspective of liquidity supply, traditional financial giants are accelerating their penetration into crypto infrastructure. Vanguard took the lead on July 7 by abandoning its years-long resistance to cryptocurrencies and urgently hiring digital asset experts to develop tokenization and stablecoin initiatives, marking a significant shift in its strategy. Meanwhile, Open USD has brought together 150 major companies to build shared infrastructure aimed at reshaping the stablecoin ecosystem and directly challenging the independent issuance models of Circle and Tether. This suggests that in the future, the liquidity of stablecoins within the ETH ecosystem will be increasingly driven by institutional alliances.

In terms of staking and asset holding, institutional capital is taking control of the key aspects of commercialization through tangible pathways. On July 3, the Ethereum Foundation separated its commercial functions, and giants such as Bitmine invested in establishing Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional, creating three major power centers. The entry of institutions and price dynamics will determine the direction of the ecosystem. Although Bitmine holds 5.7 million ETH, giving it strong liquidity, it faces higher premium risks. On the other hand, SharpLink, despite having a 21% discount, suffers from poor liquidity. These structural differences affect the valuation logic of overall staked assets in the market.

External macro liquidity pressures also cannot be ignored. On July 8, BTC spot ETFs experienced a daily net outflow of $26 million, with BlackRock leading the way. Rising risk-aversion among institutions has shattered expectations of continuous inflows. Such cross-asset liquidity tightening may indirectly suppress the risk appetite within the ETH ecosystem. Additionally, with only 25 days left before the CLARITY bill adjourns on August 10, the probability of it passing this year has dropped sharply to 40%. If ETF funds continue to flow out, assets like XRP may lose their regulatory premiums, thereby affecting the liquidity pricing benchmarks of the entire crypto market.

In summary, ETH staking and liquidity are shifting from being driven by retail investors to being dominated by institutions. The moves by Vanguard and Open USD indicate that stablecoins and tokenized assets will become the core carriers of liquidity, while ETF outflows and regulatory uncertainties act as short-term restraining factors.

03Dynamics of the L2 ecosystem

On 2026-07-09, the ETH L2 ecosystem showed significant divergence in terms of technical restructuring and institutional commercialization. At the technical level, Vitalik Buterin released a four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum on 07-07, focusing on second-level confirmation and post-quantum security to strengthen ETH’s role as a core layer for institutional settlements. At the governance level, the Ethereum Foundation separated its commercial functions on 07-03, with giants such as Bitmine investing to establish Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional, creating three major power centers that marked a shift in ecosystem control toward institutional capital. At the application level, Ondo, a leader in RWA, launched Perp DEX on 07-07, integrating RWA with derivatives and supporting up to 20x leverage for U.S. stock trading, thereby reshaping the risk dynamics on the blockchain. Although merger and acquisition activity surged by 26 times in just half a year, leading to the shrinkage of the startup ecosystem, giants are accelerating their monopoly through infrastructure and compliance frameworks. The L2 ecosystem is transitioning from a decentralized experiment to a controlled financial infrastructure.

04DeFi data

The Ethereum TVL is $39.03B, with a 1-day change of -2.8% and a 7-day change of +6.7%. The DEX liquidity stands at $970M. Solana’s TVL is $4.93B, showing a 1-day change of -4.0% and a 7-day change of +3.2%, while its DEX liquidity amounts to $2641M. Base’s TVL is $4.33B, experiencing a 1-day change of -3.0% and a 7-day change of +5.3%, with DEX liquidity at $1159M. Monad’s TVL is $500M, with a 7-day change of +39.5%, and its DEX liquidity is $78M. The price of ETH is $1,738.45, up 7.3% over 7 days, with a liquidity rating of 30. Data from Deribit as of 07-03 shows that $230 million worth of Ethereum options are set to expire, and potential maximum losses could trigger short-term volatility. On 07-07, the crypto market saw $370 million in 24-hour liquidations, with ETH short positions incurring losses of $130 million, highlighting increased risks associated with high leverage. On the same day, Ondo launched a Perp DEX that integrates real-world assets with derivatives, supporting up to 20x leverage for U.S. stock trading and reshaping risk dynamics.

05Derivatives Analysis

Benchmark date: 2026-07-09

The total settlement volume across the entire market over the past 24 hours reached 146820521.05140442, with long positions accounting for 83.4% of settlements and short positions only 16.6%, indicating that leveraged long holders are under significant deleveraging pressure amid market volatility. Among specific cryptocurrencies, WIF had the highest 24h settlement volume at 193095.58605881, of which 186847.5373576 was due to long position settlements; LTC followed closely, with a total settlement volume of 131765.03409, of which 125180.39831 came from long position settlements; CATI had a total settlement volume of 50384.9368598, with 50006.6870406 stemming from long position settlements. PLAY had a total settlement volume of 50632.2322309, with settlements distributed evenly between long and short positions—43982.1672921 for long positions and 6650.0649388 for short positions. USAR and FOGO recorded total settlement volumes of 13875.9211642 and 39891.023527800004 respectively, almost all of which were due to long position liquidations.

The current market sentiment index is 45/100, indicating a neutral stance. However, the high proportion of long position settlements suggests that leverage levels in certain areas are excessively high. Systemic risk exposure is primarily concentrated in highly volatile meme coins and tokens with smaller market caps, such as WIF, LTC, and CATI. Their long position holdings are prone to triggering cascading liquidations during price corrections. Although ETH itself did not appear in the specific settlement details mentioned in the previous list, the fact that 83.4% of settlements involved long positions indicates that if macro liquidity tightens or regulatory uncertainties increase, highly leveraged long holders may face further pressure. There is a need to be vigilant regarding risk spillovers across different assets.

06Developer Events

Benchmark date: 2026-07-09

The ETH ecosystem strength index reached 5.0, on par with those of the BTC ecosystem and the Solana ecosystem, indicating that this sector maintains a neutral level of popularity in the current market environment, without significant capital bias or price premiums driven by technological breakthroughs. In terms of developer activity and ecosystem development, the Ethereum Foundation separated its commercial functions on 07-03, and giants such as Bitmine invested to establish Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional, creating three key power centers. This marks a shift in ecosystem governance from community-led management to a new commercial phase characterized by deep involvement of institutional capital. This structural change means that developers need to adapt to a commercial landscape controlled by institutional capital, with the future direction of the ecosystem depending more on the pace of institutional entry and price dynamics rather than merely technical advancements. Although rising compliance costs have led to an increase in industry mergers and acquisitions and put pressure on startups within the ecosystem, the ETH ecosystem continues to attract substantial resources due to its potential role in institutional settlements. Developer activities are shifting from scattered innovation toward the development of centralized, compliant infrastructure.

07Emotions and Capital

The market sentiment index showed extreme volatility, surging from 14.2 to 36.0 points before reaching 50.1 and entering a neutral range, only to drop sharply by 15.6 points to 36.2, signaling a state of fear. Fund flow data revealed two sudden increases in the activity on Whale chains, rising by 46 points and 60 points respectively, indicating that large amounts of capital are actively entering the market. There was a dramatic shift in KOL consensus, with the bullish-bear gap changing by +85.0 percentage points, putting bulls at 70% currently. Although @ashcrypto pointed out that ETH has fallen 6% from its recent highs and is testing the $1,670 support level, @cryptorover believes ETH is currently at the second-lowest valuation in history. The mainstream narrative focuses on the accelerated implementation of global stablecoin regulatory frameworks and financing for AI computing infrastructure, as the market rapidly switches between panic and greed, intensifying capital battles.

08Outlook and Risks

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Neutral Outlook: The current price of ETH is $1,738.45, with 24-hour trading volume at $10.3B. The market sentiment index remains at a neutral level of 45/100, indicating that bulls and bears are stuck at the current price level, with no clear momentum for a directional breakout.

! Risk Warning: There was a daily net outflow of $26M from BTC ETFs, reflecting rising risk-aversion among institutions. Coupled with regulatory uncertainty regarding the CLARITY bill, which faces a deadline for recess on August 10, short-term funding conditions are under pressure.

• Positive Signals: ETH’s overall rating is 64 points, with a technical score as high as 88. Additionally, it has seen a 7-day increase of +7.3%, suggesting that its medium-term technical structure remains healthy and provides a basis for a rebound.

Future Outlook

Compared to the previous period, market sentiment has returned to a neutral range of 45/100 after previous fluctuations, with ETH prices fluctuating around $1,738.45. Although there was a daily net outflow of $26M from BTC ETFs, ETH’s technical score (88) is significantly higher than its fundamental score (73), indicating strong technical support for prices in the short term. However, long-term value will depend on institutional funds re-entering the market.

Key Observations:

1. Effectiveness of Technical Support: ETH’s technical score of 88 is quite high. If the price can hold the current support level around $1,738.45, it may attempt a rebound driven by its 7-day weekly growth rate of +7.3%. Confidence level: Medium to High.
2. Institutional Capital Flow: The daily net outflow of $26M from BTC ETFs shows that traditional investors are still cautious or taking defensive positions. If ETF capital flows do not turn positive, it will be difficult for ETH to experience a significant upward move on its own. Confidence level: High.
3. Regulatory Policy Timeline: With only 25 days left before the recess on August 10 for the CLARITY bill, failure to pass it could put pressure on the market due to the disappearance of regulatory premiums. Confidence level: Medium.

Scenario Analysis

Major Risk Factors

1. Regulatory Policy Risks: If the CLARITY bill is not passed by August 10, the chances of approval this year drop sharply, potentially causing the crypto market to lose its regulatory premium and leading to asset revaluation.
2. Institutional Withdrawals: The daily net outflow of $26M from BTC ETFs indicates that giants like BlackRock are continuing to withdraw funds. This will reduce market liquidity and limit ETH’s potential for rebounds.
3. Chain Reactions from High-Leverage Liquidations: With $370 million in liquidations within 24 hours and ETH bearers suffering losses of $130 million, volatility in a high-leverage environment could trigger a cascade of margin calls, intensifying market fluctuations.

09Related Reads

1. “Vitalik的四年路线图：以太坊能否守住机构结算的地位？”
2. “24小时内清算3.7亿美元：BTC/ETH空头惨败，SOL市场情绪中性”
3. “资管巨头急于寻找新掌门人：从抵制加密货币到布局代币化业务”
4. “150家巨头竞相追逐Open USD：BlackRock与Visa为何携手合作？”
5. “基金会选择保持中立，巨头资本如何掌控加密货币的商业化进程？”
6. “股价跌幅高达21%却难以反弹：是Bitmine的优势太大，还是SharpLink的估值过低？”
7. “连续10天下跌，损失2.96亿美元：BlackRock成为最大的资金流出方”
8. “CLARITY法案的25天生死线：若在8月会议前未能通过，加密货币市场将会怎样？”
9. “RWA领域的领头企业进军Perp DEX领域：20倍杠杆正在重塑华尔街的区块链逻辑”
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11. “1.9亿份比特币期权今日到期，最大潜在亏损额为6.1万美元”