Market Structure Analysis (Issue 8 · Week 28, 2026)

01Executive Summary

[Core Conclusion]. Data from this period shows that stablecoins see an average daily turnover of $38 billion over weekends, surpassing traditional payment networks, which indicates that crypto infrastructure is fundamentally reshaping the global financial settlement system. Strategy received approval to sell $1.25 billion worth of tokens, breaking its “never sell tokens” rule and signaling that institutional holdings have entered a new phase of monetization. Coinbase, in partnership with 140 institutions, launched OUSD to challenge USDT, triggering an ultimate battle for interests in the stablecoin sector. M&A activities have surged 26 times in just half a year, as the industry moves closer to replicating the traditional financial model dominated by giants. Investors should be wary of potential ecosystem disruptions caused by rising compliance costs, and pay close attention to the risks associated with technological restructuring in tokenization and institutional settlements.

02Background and Current Market Situation

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

The crypto market has gone through a decade-long evolution, transitioning from bedroom-developed projects to a landscape dominated by giants. M&A activities in this sector have surged 26 times over the past six months, while the startup ecosystem is experiencing a kind of “extinction,” with the industry following traditional financial pathways. The market structure shows significant divergence: BTC is currently trading at $62,113.00, with a 24-hour trading volume of $27.7B and a market cap of $1246B; ETH is priced at $1,737.80, with a 24-hour trading volume of $10.2B and a market cap of $210B. BNB trades at $568.27, with a 24-hour trading volume of $581M and a market cap of $77B; SOL is priced at $77.71, featuring a 24-hour trading volume of $2.3B and a market cap of $45B.

Recent key milestones have reshaped the industry landscape. On 2026-07-07, Tether destroyed $2.5 billion worth of USDT in a single day, setting a historical record that sparked concerns about tightened liquidity. On the same day, the total value of stablecoin settlements reached $1.1 trillion, with average daily turnover exceeding $38 billion—surpassing that of traditional payment networks and signaling that crypto assets are becoming part of the core infrastructure of global finance. On 2026-07-08, Strategy broke its long-standing rule of “never selling tokens” by launching a Bitcoin monetization plan to address the heavy dividend pressures associated with its STRC preferred stocks.

The market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with a neutral sentiment score of 47/100. On 2026-07-08, BTC dropped to $62,200, followed by ETH, which fell to $1,738. Across the board, prices declined, with DeFi sectors leading the drop at 9%, while AI and GameFi sectors saw declines of over 5%. There is a structural shift in capital flow, with funds moving from the AI sector to Restaking and DeFi platforms this week, while ecosystem-related sectors remained relatively stable. Although traditional investors are investing in tokenized assets, whale sales and regulatory uncertainties are suppressing short-term rebounds, intensifying market competition.

03Core Analysis

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Technical Aspect: Leverage Liquidations and Divergent On-Chain Activity

The market shows signs of consolidation following high volatility. BTC is currently trading at $62,113.00, with a 2.2% drop in 24 hours and a 4.1% gain over 7 days, while 24-hour trading volume stands at $27.7B. ETH is priced at $1,737.80, down 2.2% in 24 hours but up 8.0% over 7 days, boasting 24-hour trading volume of $10.2B. SOL is trading at $77.71, with a 3.2% decline in 24 hours and only a 0.4% increase over 7 days, and its 24-hour trading volume is $2.3B. BNB is currently at $568.27, down 1.7% in 24 hours but up 3.9% over 7 days, with 24-hour trading volume of $581M.

Leverage-related risks have been significantly unleashed. BTC breaking below the key support level of $62,000 triggered leveraged liquidations worth over $1.69B, while long positions in ETH and SOL suffered heavy losses. Previously, the market saw liquidations amounting to $3.7B in a single day, highlighting the cascading margin call effects under high leverage conditions. There is a structural divergence in on-chain activity: Solana’s transaction volume reached a yearly high, and meme coins like ANSEM drove a 38% surge in active addresses, though this was mainly driven by speculation. Ethereum’s token withdrawals hit a three-year high, and Binance’s weekly net outflows surged to $1.23B, indicating increased willingness to hold assets on-chain.

Fundamental Aspect: Reconfiguration of Institutional Strategies and Regulatory Battles

Fundamentals are influenced by both the rebalancing of institutional capital flows and regulatory uncertainties. Strategy has initiated a monetization strategy by selling tokens, breaking its long-standing rule of “never selling tokens” to cope with debt pressures, which has heightened concerns about further selling pressure in the market. Tether destroyed $25B worth of USDT in a single day. Although this is part of normal supply management, it has led to interpretations of tightening liquidity during a period of market calm. The scale of stablecoin settlements has reached $1.1T, with average daily turnover exceeding $38B, surpassing traditional payment networks and facilitating the transformation of crypto assets into core infrastructure in the global financial system.

On the regulatory front, major central banks and regulatory bodies around the world are engaged in intense debates over the nature of stablecoins. Countries such as Brazil, the UK, and India have tightened policies, increasing compliance costs for the industry. Trump’s efforts to establish strategic reserves have faced obstacles from various departments; the authority of the Treasury Department has come under question, with the Commerce Department possibly taking over regulation, and Congress plans to purchase millions of tokens over five years. The Digital Chamber has submitted a petition opposing the classification of dormant wallets as lost property, with involved amounts reaching $234B, raising concerns that this could undermine the foundation of digital asset ownership.

Market Aspect: Sector Rotation and Competition Among Existing Players

Market sentiment is neutral (45/100). Funds are competing among existing sectors, with no clear new inflows. This week, capital shifted from the previously popular AI sector to Restaking and DeFi. AI Agents and AI/Agent stocks experienced significant profit-taking, resulting in notable declines in 24 hours. The Restaking sector rebounded strongly due to high return expectations, becoming the strongest trend this week, followed closely by the DeFi sector. Privacy coins recovered after last week’s sharp drop.

Among the popular sectors, BTC ecosystems, ETH ecosystems, and DEXs showed strong performance, with DEXs even rising 1.2% against the trend. M&A activities have surged 26 times in half a year, indicating that the startup ecosystem is experiencing a kind of “extinction,” with the industry following in the footsteps of traditional finance. BlackRock acquired assets worth $81M in just a few minutes, and although selling pressure in MicroStrategy persists, there are clear signs of institutional buying. The market is in a phase of consolidation, with the movements of large Whale investors exacerbating volatility, limiting short-term rebounds.

04Data and Indicators

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Quantitative Performance of Key Assets

As of the benchmark date, major crypto assets showed an overall downward trend. The current price of BTC is $62,113.00, with a 24-hour decline of -2.2% and a 7-day increase of +4.1%. The 24-hour trading volume reached $27.7B. The current price of ETH is $1,737.80, with a 24-hour decline of -2.2% and a 7-day increase of +8.0%. Its 24-hour trading volume was $10.2B. The current price of BNB is $568.27, showing a 24-hour decline of -1.7% and a 7-day increase of +3.9%. The 24-hour trading volume for BNB was $581M. The current price of SOL is $77.71, with a 24-hour decline of -3.2% and a 7-day increase of +0.4%. The 24-hour trading volume for SOL was $2.3B.

Multi-dimensional Rating and Technical Analysis

Based on a comprehensive scoring system, BTC has an overall score of 65, with a technical score of 75, a fundamental analysis score of 76, a liquidity score of 25, and a token economics score of 98. ETH’s overall score is 64, featuring a very high technical score of 88, a fundamental analysis score of 73, a liquidity score of 30, and a token economics score of 85. BNB’s overall score is 58, with a technical score of 72, a fundamental analysis score of 62, a liquidity score of 22, and a token economics score of 98. SOL’s overall score is 57, with a technical score of 78, a fundamental analysis score of 64, a liquidity score of 32, and a token economics score of 79.

The data shows that ETH performs strongest in terms of technical aspects (88 points), while BTC and BNB both receive full marks (98 points) in the token economics category. However, their liquidity scores are relatively low, with BTC at 25 points and BNB at 22 points, indicating structural weaknesses in market depth and trading activity.

Market Sentiment and Sector Rotation

The current market sentiment index is 45/100, indicating a neutral market condition. In terms of sector strength, privacy coins lead with a score of 5.7. The BTC ecosystem, Solana ecosystem, ETH ecosystem, and stablecoins all have a strength score of 5.0, while the RWA sector has a strength score of 4.1. Fund flow data shows that Restaking, DeFi, and privacy coins are seeing inflows of capital, whereas AI Agents, AI/Agent, and DEX sectors are experiencing outflows. BTC ETFs saw a net outflow of $26M on July 8, 2026, further reflecting the cautious attitude of short-term investors.

05Competitive landscape

Reference Date: 2026-07-09

The current cryptocurrency market is characterized by BTC as the absolute core, with ETH, SOL, and BNB competing in distinct ways. BTC has a market value of $1246B, giving it a dominant position. Its token economy score is as high as 98, with a comprehensive score of 65, a technology score of 75, and a fundamental analysis score of 76. However, its liquidity score is only 25, indicating that it functions more as a value storage asset rather than a medium for transactions. ETH has a market value of $210B, with a comprehensive score of 64 and a technology score of 88, the highest in the sector. Its fundamental analysis score is 73, its token economy score is 85, and its liquidity score is 30. Thanks to Vitalik Buterin’s four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum, which focuses on second-level confirmation and post-quantum security, ETH aims to strengthen its position in institutional settlements. SOL has a market value of $45B, with a comprehensive score of 57, a technology score of 78, a fundamental analysis score of 64, a token economy score of 79, and a liquidity score of 32. It is renowned for its high performance. BNB has a market value of $77B, with a comprehensive score of 58, a technology score of 72, a fundamental analysis score of 62, and a token economy score of 98 — the same highest score as BTC. Yet its liquidity score is only 22, relying on the Binance ecosystem to maintain stability.

In terms of technical approaches, ETH is restructuring its technical architecture through Lean Ethereum to address post-quantum security challenges and strive to maintain its lead in institutional settlements. BTC, on the other hand, faces regulatory and ownership disputes, such as the controversy over the ownership of 390,000 dormant BTC coins, worth $234 billion. The Digital Chamber opposes classifying them as lost property to uphold the foundation of digital asset ownership. In terms of ecosystem advantages, Binance’s data shows that its stablecoins see average daily trading volume of $38 billion over weekends, surpassing traditional payment networks and facilitating retail adoption. Although no specific ecosystem developments are mentioned for SOL, its high liquidity score of 32 reflects its high level of activity in trading. BTC’s ecosystem is significantly influenced by political factors. The $140 million in crypto earnings of the Trump family has raised concerns about conflicts of interest, with senators proposing laws to ban officials from issuing cryptocurrencies in an attempt to resolve legislative deadlocks. Additionally, asset management giant Vanguard has abandoned its resistance to cryptocurrencies and is urgently hiring experts in digital assets to develop tokenization strategies, marking a significant strategic shift that is beneficial for mainstream assets like BTC. M&A activities in this sector have increased by 26 times in just half a year, leading to the “extinction” of many startups. The industry is following the path of traditional finance, further strengthening the advantages of leading projects.

06Risks and Opportunities

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Key Risks

1. Policy and Regulatory Uncertainty (Probability: High) Trump’s efforts to establish a strategic reserve program face resistance from various departments. The authority of the Treasury Department is under question, with the Commerce Department potentially taking over regulation. Congress plans to purchase millions of coins over five years. This move could lead to a fragmented regulatory framework and increased compliance costs. Response Strategy: Closely monitor the progress in defining the responsibilities between the Treasury Department and the Commerce Department. Diversify asset allocations to avoid risks associated with a single regulatory jurisdiction, and prioritize investing in high-compliance assets.

2. Legal Ownership Disputes (Probability: Medium) The Digital Chamber is opposing lawsuits in New York State, arguing against classifying 390,000 dormant BTC coins as lost property, with the involved value reaching $234 billion. If judicial decisions undermine the foundation of digital asset ownership, it could trigger a crisis of trust in the market. Response Strategy: Strengthen the security management of private keys and avoid using wallets that remain dormant for long periods. Pay attention to how judicial rulings affect asset ownership, and seek legal means to confirm ownership when necessary.

3. Ecosystem Monopoly and Decline of Startups (Probability: Medium) Rising compliance costs and retreating venture capital have led to a 26-fold increase in merger and acquisition activities over half a year, resulting in the decline of the startup ecosystem. If the industry follows traditional financial models, it may reduce innovation and intensify the dominance of large players. Response Strategy: Focus on projects with unique technical barriers or community consensus, and avoid investing in highly homogenized startup tokens. Pay attention to the synergies resulting from mergers and acquisitions.

Key Opportunities

1. Accelerated Inflow of Institutional Funds Pioneer Investments has broken its years-long resistance to cryptocurrencies and is urgently recruiting experts in digital assets to develop tokenization and stablecoin initiatives. This strategic shift by traditional asset management giants signals an accelerated inflow of institutional funds, enhancing market liquidity and maturity. Response Strategy: Pay attention to tokenization projects and stablecoin ecosystems in collaboration with giants like Pioneer Investments, and invest in underlying infrastructure that benefits from institutional investment.

2. Rising Adoption of Stablecoins for Payments According to Binance data, stablecoins see an average daily turnover of $38 billion on weekends, surpassing traditional payment networks. This drives retail adoption and the popularity of high-yield financial products. Stablecoins are reshaping global financial infrastructure, creating significant demand for trading and financial services. Response Strategy: Invest in projects deeply integrated with stablecoin payment scenarios, and pay attention to the security and sustainability of high-yield financial product agreements.

3. Restructuring of Cross-Border Capital Flows via Blockchain After the Securities Regulatory Commission imposed heavy penalties on three cross-border brokers, crypto exchanges are leveraging blockchain-based U.S. stocks to meet rising demand, with an average daily net inflow of $42 million. Regulatory restrictions on traditional channels are pushing capital toward blockchain, restructuring cross-border capital flow patterns. Response Strategy: Pay attention to exchanges that support trading in blockchain-based U.S. stocks and related infrastructure projects, and seize the opportunities for increased trading volume brought about by cross-border capital flows.

07Conclusions and Recommendations

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Summary of Key Insights The crypto market is undergoing a structural transformation, shifting from speculation to deeper integration with traditional financial infrastructure. Regulatory and political tensions are intensifying—senators are proposing bans on elected officials issuing their own cryptocurrencies to curb conflicts of interest, while internal strife and political donation issues within the Trump family due to profits from crypto continue to escalate. Industry concentration is rising sharply, with compliance costs soaring and merger and acquisition activity increasing by 26 times in just half a year, putting pressure on the startup ecosystem. A fierce battle is unfolding between issuers and platforms in the stablecoin space, with Coinbase partnering with 140 institutions to launch OUSD, directly challenging the existing landscape. Additionally, stablecoins see $38 billion in daily turnover over weekends, surpassing traditional payment networks and reshaping global financial infrastructure.

Tailored Recommendations

Institutional Investors

1. Focus on tokenization and compliant entry points: Pioneering firms are urgently hiring heads for digital assets, signaling a strategic shift by traditional asset management giants. It is recommended to invest in tokenized assets and compliant stablecoin infrastructure.
2. Assess risks from technological upgrades: Ethereum has unveiled a four-year upgrade plan covering second-level confirmation and post-quantum security. Institutions need to evaluate its impact on settlement efficiency and the realization of its trillion-dollar vision.
3. Be vigilant about regulatory changes: The authority of the Treasury Department is under question, with the Commerce Department potentially taking over regulation. Congress plans to purchase millions of coins over five years, so it is crucial to closely monitor the implementation of strategic reserve policies.

Retail Investors

1. Leverage the advantages of stablecoins for investing: Stablecoins see $76 billion in weekly settlement volume, offering greater liquidity than traditional banks. Investors can explore high-yield investment options and arbitrage opportunities arising from cross-border payments.
2. Avoid assets linked to politics: Senators have criticized the Trump family’s huge profits and proposed banning officials from issuing cryptocurrencies. It is advised to stay away from meme coins strongly associated with politicians to avoid policy-related risks.
3. Pay attention to on-chain alternatives for U.S. stocks: After the Securities and Exchange Commission imposed heavy fines on cross-border brokers, on-chain U.S. stocks see $42 million in daily net inflows, providing new cross-border investment options for restricted funds.

Developers

1. Prioritize post-quantum security and performance: Keep up with Ethereum’s Lean Ethereum roadmap by focusing on developing protocols for second-level confirmation and resistance to quantum attacks to meet the needs of institutional-level settlements.
2. Participate in the restructuring of the stablecoin ecosystem: OUSD is challenging the dominance of USDT by redefining profit distribution mechanisms. Developers can explore new stablecoin issuance protocols and cross-chain liquidity aggregation solutions.
3. Address compliance and ownership issues: Digital business associations are opposing the classification of dormant wallets as lost property, with involved amounts reaching $234 billion. It is necessary to enhance the legal compliance design of smart contracts regarding asset ownership verification.

08Related Reads

1. “Weekend Settlement: $76 Billion – How Stablecoins Are Outpacing Traditional Banks?”
2. “Strategy Breaks Its Coin-Selling Rule; Stablecoin Giants Unite for a High-Stakes Crypto Political Gamble in 2026”
3. “Coinbase Teams Up with 140 Giants to Create OUSD; Circle’s Stock Plummets 16%”
4. “M&A Activities Surge 26-Fold: The Evolution of Cryptocurrency from Bedroom Code to Giant Monopolies Over a Decade”
5. “Vitalik Buterin’s Four-Year Roadmap: Can Ethereum Maintain Institutional Settlements?”
6. “Battle Over Ownership of 390,000 Dormant BTCs: Digital Business Associations Fight Back Against New York State Lawsuits”
7. “Annual Dividends of $1.26 Billion: Strategy Breaks Its ‘Never Sell Coins’ Principle and Starts Monetization”
8. “$140 Million in Crypto Profits Declared Legal; Intense Conflict Erupts Within Family”
9. “Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Plans Stalled: Doubts About Treasury Authority as Commerce Department Rises as Candidate”
10. “Asset Management Giants Rush to Hire New Leaders: From Rejecting Cryptocurrency to Investing in Tokenization”
11. “From Calling Bitcoin a Scam to Viewing It as Central to Their Strategy – All Out of Fear of China Taking the Lead”
12. “Senator Proposes Banning Officials from Issuing Cryptocurrencies, Targeting Trump Family’s $140 Million in Profits”
13. “Regulations Block Cross-Border Brokers; On-Chain U.S. Stocks Attract $42 Million Daily”
14. “Dell’s Stock Soars; SpaceX Follows – Who Will Benefit from the Trillion-Dollar Fund Pool?”
15. “Foundations Retire to Neutrality – How Giant Capital Controls the Lifeline of Commercialization”
16. “RWA Leaders Attack Perp DEXs: 20x Leverage Reshapes Wall Street’s On-Chain Logic”
17. “Secrets Behind Strategy’s Coin Sales: The $1.25 Billion Cap Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg”
18. “Trump Aims to Take Control of Cryptocurrency – Bitcoin May End Up in Children’s Accounts”
19. “The Rise of a $1.4 Billion Empire: An Analysis of the Five Core Elements of Trump Family’s Cryptocurrency Empire”
20. “Countdown to Q-Day: How Quantum Computing Threatens Bitcoin and $452 Billion in Assets”
21. “SEC’s 2026 Regulations Align with Trump’s Policies; Democrats Criticize Regulatory Interest Exchanges”