BTC Market Weekly Report (Issue 11 · Week 28, 2026)

01Market Review

This week, BTC closed slightly higher amid volatility, with institutional selling pressure and macroeconomic factors driving short-term trends.

Base date: 2026-07-09. BTC’s price ranged from $63,314 to $61,829.00 this week, posting a weekly gain of +2.4%—reflecting resilience after intense buying and selling battles. The 24-hour trading volume reached $26.4B, indicating ample market liquidity but also growing divisions among investors. At the start of the week, BTC rose by 1.23% to stay above $63,314, aided by weak employment data that encouraged capital inflows. It then climbed 2.32% on 07-06 to reach $64,370, driven by strong performance in DeFi and DEX sectors. However, the market corrected starting from 07-07, with BTC falling 1.23% to around $62,909, and ETH also declining. On 07-08, market sentiment weakened, pushing BTC down to $62,200; across all sectors, prices dropped, with DeFi leading the decline at 9%.

Movements by Whales intensify volatility: Strategy broke its “never sell coins” policy by obtaining approval to sell $1.25 billion in tokens to address dividend pressures, with the actual scale of sales potentially exceeding $3 billion. Meanwhile, Tether’s destruction of 2.5 billion USDT in a single day raised concerns about liquidity. Although institutions like BlackRock showed signs of accumulating assets by purchasing $81 million in just a few minutes, political uncertainties such as disputes over cryptocurrency earnings related to the Trump family and restrictions imposed by the Treasury Department suppressed any potential rebound.

• Key focuses for next week: The ongoing impact of Strategy’s token sales on BTC prices and changes in ETF funding flows.

02ETF Fund Flows

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

ETF Fund Flow

• Daily Net Outflow for BTC ETFs: $26M (2026-07-08) → The net outflow indicates a weakening willingness among institutions to allocate funds in the short term, with market sentiment leaning cautious.
• Current BTC Price: $61,829.00 → The price is near a key support level. Combined with the ETF outflow data, this suggests a lack of strong buying pressure in the market, resulting in insufficient bullish momentum.
• 24h Change in BTC Price: -1.8% → The price faced downward pressure during the day, echoing the ETF outflow trend and reflecting either profit-taking by short-term investors or rising risk-aversion.
• 7-day Change in BTC Price: +2.4% → The weekly trend still shows positive returns, indicating that despite daily outflows, the medium-term trend has not yet reversed completely, and the market is in a state of consolidation.
• 24h Trading Volume for BTC: $26.4B → The high trading volume reflects significant market divergence, with bulls and bears engaged in intense competition around $61,829.00.
• BTC Market Capitalization: $1240B → The stable market capitalization, as a benchmark asset, provides sufficient liquidity to cushion fluctuations in ETF fund flows.

! Risk Warning: Although the daily net outflow for BTC ETFs is $26M, which is not a huge amount, it warrants caution given the slight price decline, as continued reduction in institutional holdings could trigger subsequent reactions.

03Core on-chain indicators

As of 2026-07-09, key metrics on the BTC chain indicate that the market is in a phase of consolidation. Data from July 2 showed that SOPR stood at 0.99573951, indicating a “loss-selling” situation, which suggests that some holders are selling below their cost prices, implying short-term profit-taking or stop-loss pressures in the market. MVRV was 1.15856675, falling within the “reasonable” range, corresponding to approximately the 40th–50th percentile historically, far from the bubble zone, indicating that the current price of $61,829.00 has a certain degree of safety margin and no extreme valuation issues. NUPL was 0.13686458, indicating a “hope” stage, reflecting that long-term holders have begun realizing some profits, with market sentiment shifting from fear to cautious optimism, but not yet entering the greed phase.

In terms of capital flows, there is significant divergence among Whales. On July 7, Tether destroyed $2.5 billion worth of USDT in a single day, setting a historical record and triggering concerns about tightening liquidity. Meanwhile, Strategy broke its “never sell” principle by initiating a monetization plan, with actual selling volume exceeding $3 billion, creating substantial selling pressure. Although institutions like BlackRock showed signs of buying up assets on July 6, overall chain data indicated that long-term holders suffered daily losses of $280 million, highlighting the vulnerability associated with high leverage. Regarding active addresses, stablecoins saw an average daily turnover of $38 billion over the weekend, surpassing traditional payment networks for the first time, indicating rising retail adoption. However, funds tended to flow into higher-yielding financial products rather than being directly invested in BTC.

Overall, the on-chain signal rating is neutral to bearish. The reasons are as follows: The loss-selling indicated by SOPR, combined with large-scale selling by Whales (such as Strategy’s sales and Tether’s asset destruction), creates dual downward pressure. Although MVRV suggests a reasonable valuation and NUPL indicates hope, short-term selling pressure and liquidity tightening risks outweigh buying support. The market still needs to cope with the pressure from institutional asset reductions.

04Derivatives and Options

Reference date: 2026-07-09

The total settlement amount across the entire market in the past 24 hours reached $127,455,527.16840419, of which long-position settlements accounted for 75.2% and short-position settlements accounted for 24.8%, indicating that leveraged long positions bear the main stress from deleveraging amid price fluctuations. Looking at specific cryptocurrencies, the total 24-hour settlement amount for LTC was 100,382.34296000001, with long-position settlements amounting to 86,197.45119 and short-position settlements at 14,184.89177, showing significant settlements on both sides. The total settlement amount for WIF was 87,113.14417841999, with long-position settlements at 69,034.84378042 and short-position settlements at 18,078.300398, indicating intense high-leverage competition for this asset. The total settlement amount for PLAY was 37,034.2513669, with long-position settlements at 30,600.5906073 and short-position settlements at 6,433.6607596, suggesting a higher risk exposure on the long side. The total settlement amount for FOGO was 36,679.3395878, almost entirely consisting of long-position settlements at 36,674.2883878, with only 5.0512 in short-position settlements, reflecting a one-sided long-position squeeze. The total settlement amount for CATI was 31,361.510532099997, with long-position settlements at 30,983.2607129 and short-position settlements at 378.2498192, indicating extremely high concentration of leverage on the long side. The total settlement amount for USAR was 13,875.9211642, all of which were long-position settlements with no short-position settlements recorded, reflecting the vulnerability of leverage on the long side for this cryptocurrency. The total settlement amount for PARTI was 17,434.604827400002, with long-position settlements at 17,318.3563274 and short-position settlements at 116.2485, showing that deleveraging pressure on long positions dominates. The total settlement amount for HUMA was 3,769.3514364, with long-position settlements at 3,665.5847928 and short-position settlements at 103.7666436, indicating a dominant risk on the long side. The total settlement amount for AIXBT was 3,333.930579, with long-position settlements at 1,972.630575 and short-position settlements at 1,361.300004, showing relatively balanced settlements on both sides. The total settlement amount for JPM was 5,297.0291606, with long-position settlements at 5,099.2611606 and short-position settlements at 197.768, revealing obvious exposure to leverage on the long side. The total settlement amount for NVO was 1,044.5977217, all of which were long-position settlements. The total settlement amount for PROM was 1,333.12289144, with long-position settlements at 1,315.49609144 and short-position settlements at 17.6268. The total settlement amount for RIVN was 5,362.7646358, all of which were long-position settlements. The total settlement amount for JOE was 4,464.1435924, all of which were long-position settlements. The total settlement amount for LSK was 827.5493, with long-position settlements at 771.3085 and short-position settlements at 56.2408. The total settlement amount for BB was 556.5003800000001, with long-position settlements at 405.639355 and short-position settlements at 150.861025. The total settlement amount for WAXP was 322.4328563, all of which were long-position settlements. The total settlement amount for BMNR was 285.3984, all of which were long-position settlements. The total settlement amount for AT was 192.1006, all of which were long-position settlements. The total settlement amount for DOLO was 7.94581, all of which were long-position settlements. Overall, most cryptocurrencies show a pattern dominated by long-position settlements, with systemic risks primarily arising from excessive concentration of leverage on the long side, especially evident in cryptocurrencies such as FOGO, USAR, and CATI. Caution is needed regarding potential further price declines that could trigger a chain reaction of deleveraging.

05Updates on Whales

Benchmark date: 2026-07-09

Institutional funds have shown significant divergence and rebalancing trends. To cope with the dividend pressure from STRC preferred stocks, Strategy broke its “never sell crypto” rule and initiated a monetization strategy. By using accounting classifications, it excluded $216 million worth of crypto sales from the $1.25 billion limit, resulting in actual selling volumes exceeding $3 billion, indicating its transition toward an actively managed hedge fund model. Meanwhile, BlackRock acquired $81 million in just a few minutes on 2026-07-06. Despite continuous selling pressure from Strategy, there were still clear signs of institutions accumulating assets, suggesting that long-term investors continued to buy at lower prices.

Regarding retail and leveraged funds, there was an increased willingness to hold assets on-chain. On 2026-07-05, Ethereum withdrawals reached a three-year high, while Binance saw a sharp weekly outflow of $123 million, reflecting users’ tendency to transfer their assets to cold wallets for long-term holding. However, market tensions intensified. On 2026-07-04, a large-scale transfer of assets by Whales to exchanges raised concerns about selling pressure, but subsequent weak employment data led to capital inflows, resulting in significant divergences between bulls and bears. If BTC breaks through the key level of $60,062, it is expected to trigger consecutive liquidations of short positions worth $105 million, indicating that leveraged long positions still possess a certain degree of resilience.

06Miner Behavior

Using 2026-07-09 as the reference date, the BTC miner ecosystem is characterized by both high computing power and low transaction fees. The total computing power across the network reached 906.5 EH/s, while the mining difficulty remained at 133.87T, indicating that network security is at a historically high level. However, memory pool congestion is significant, with 91,122 pending transactions resulting in a total backlog fee of 0.0843 BTC. Yet, the fast, 1-hour, and lowest transaction fees all amount to just 1 sat/vB, suggesting that although there is intense activity on the chain, users are highly reluctant to pay fees.

Regarding miner profitability, based on an estimated Hashprice of $28.9740/PH/day (including subsidies) and the current BTC price of $61,698, miners’ income primarily depends on block subsidies. The average fee for the past 6 blocks is only 0.012484 BTC (approximately $772), which constitutes a very small portion compared to block rewards. This further confirms that in the current environment of low fees, miners rely less on transaction fee income. A total of 136 blocks were mined within 24 hours, showing stable block generation rates. Due to the lack of data on LTH-SOPR and STH-SOPR differentials as well as reserve risk indicators, this chapter focuses on computing power and fee structures. It reveals that miners continue to invest heavily in computing power even in a low-fee environment, with their profit margins being limited mainly by block subsidies rather than transaction fee premiums.

07Technical Analysis

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Technical Analysis

As of the benchmark date, the current price of BTC is $61,829.00, down 1.8% within 24 hours, but up 2.4% over the past 7 days. This indicates that short-term corrections have not altered the upward trend observed on the weekly chart. From a quantitative rating perspective, BTC scores 75 points in terms of technical performance, which is higher than its overall score of 65 points. This suggests that the current price structure has strong technical support and performs better than the overall market.

A technical score of 75 reflects strong buying interest around key support levels, with price volatility remaining within manageable bounds. However, the liquidity score is only 25, significantly lower than the technical and fundamental scores, indicating that the market may face risks of increased slippage or insufficient depth during extreme market conditions. The fundamental score of 76 confirms that BTC’s long-term value as digital gold remains unaffected by short-term fluctuations.

Given the 24-hour trading volume of $26.4B, market participation remains active. Yet, the price has failed to break above previous highs, suggesting some resistance from sellers at higher levels. The high scores in technical and fundamental aspects (75/76) contrast with the low liquidity score (25). While investors can focus on potential technical rebounds, they should also be cautious about short-term price volatility caused by insufficient liquidity.

08Emotions and Capital

Market sentiment remains neutral overall, with the index stabilizing at 45/100. There were significant fluctuations during this period, including periods of extreme optimism when it surged from 14.2 to 36.0 points, reaching 50.1, as well as moments of panic when it tumbled from 51.8 down by 15.6 points to 36.2. Fund flow data shows a notable increase in the activity of Whales, with on-chain activity rising by 46 points and 60 points respectively, indicating that large amounts of capital are actively entering the market. There was a sharp shift in KOL consensus, with the bullish-bear gap expanding by 85.0 percentage points—bulls now account for 70% while bears make up only 15%, with 10 KOLs forming a strong bullish coalition. Regarding institutional movements, IBIT under BlackRock withdrew 883.6 BTC (worth $54.8 million) from Coinbase, demonstrating a aggressive buying stance. Although some views express concerns about BTC returning to key structural levels, the dominant narrative has shifted from risk aversion to expectations of a summer rebound and institutional buying interest.

09Outlook and Risks

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Neutral Outlook: The current BTC price is $61,829.00, with the market sentiment index at 45/100, indicating a neutral stance. ! Risk Warning: Strategy has broken its “never sell crypto” rule, with actual selling volume exceeding 3 billion tokens, creating short-term supply pressure.

• Positive Signals: Trump is pushing for strategic reserves, and Congress plans to purchase millions of tokens over five years, suggesting improved long-term policy prospects.

Key Observations

1. Short-term Pressure from Institutional Selling and Policy Dynamics To address STRC preferred stock dividends, Strategy initiated a monetization plan, using accounting tactics to exclude 216 million tokens from the 1.25 billion-token limit. The actual selling volume exceeded 3 billion tokens. Although Trump’s expansion into the crypto space and the strategic reserve proposal offer long-term optimism, such massive short-term supply could suppress price rebounds. Prediction: Short-term volatility under pressure. Confidence: High.

2. Uncertainty in Liquidity Due to the Restructuring of Stablecoins Coinbase, together with 140 institutions, launched OUSD, challenging USDT’s dominance, causing Circle’s stock price to drop by 16%. As competition among stablecoins intensifies, rapid growth of OUSD could drain liquidity from traditional stablecoins, affecting market depth. Prediction: Divergent liquidity patterns. Confidence: Medium.

3. Increased Concentration in the Industry Due to Rising Compliance Costs M&A activity surged by 26 times in half a year, leading to the “extinction” of many startups as the industry follows traditional financial models. Rising compliance costs and venture capital pulling back at later stages benefit larger firms while hurting smaller projects. Prediction: Accelerated sector rotation. Confidence: Medium.

Multiple Scenario Analyses

Major Risk Factors

1. Supply Shock Risk: Strategy’s actual selling volume exceeds 3 billion tokens, which could lead to a significant price drop if the market cannot absorb it.
2. Policy Implementation Risk: Trump’s strategic reserve proposal faces doubts regarding Treasury authority, and there is uncertainty about who will oversee regulation.
3. Liquidity Fragmentation Risk: The rise of new stablecoins like OUSD may lead to fragmented liquidity and increased transaction slippage.

10Related Reads

1. “Annual Dividends of 1.26 Billion: Strategy Breaks Its ‘Never Sell Coins’ Rule and Initiates Monetization”
2. “From Calling Bitcoin a Scam to Viewing It as Core—All Because of Fear of China Taking the Lead”
3. “M&A Activities Surge 26-Fold: The Evolution of Cryptocurrency from Bedroom Code to Giant Monopolies Over a Decade”
4. “Senator Proposes Banning Officials from Issuing Cryptocurrencies, Targeting Trump Family’s $140 Million Profits”
5. “$140 Million in Cryptocurrency Profits Declared Legal; Intense Conflict Erupts Within the Family”
6. “Trump’s Bitcoin Reserves Face Hurdles: Doubts About Treasury’s Authority, Commerce Department as Potential Candidate”
7. “Battle Over Ownership of 390,000 Dormant BTCs: Digital Business Associations Resist Lawsuit by New York State”
8. “Secrets Behind Strategy’s Coin Sales: The $1.25 Billion Cap Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg”
9. “Strategy Breaks Through by Selling Coins; Stablecoin Giants Unite for a High-Stakes Cryptocurrency Political Gamble in 2026”
10. “The Rise of a $1.4 Billion Empire: An Analysis of the Five Core Elements of Trump Family’s Cryptocurrency Empire”
11. “Coinbase Teams Up with 140 Giants to Create OUSD; Circle’s Stock Plummets 16% in This Strategic Move”