Market Structure Analysis (Issue 7 · Week 28, 2026)

01Executive Summary

[Core Conclusion]. Data from this period shows that stablecoins see an average daily turnover of $38 billion over weekends, surpassing traditional payment networks. This indicates that crypto infrastructure is fundamentally reshaping the global financial settlement system. Meanwhile, Strategy received approval to sell $1.25 billion worth of tokens, breaking its “never sell tokens” rule, while Coinbase, in partnership with 140 institutions, launched OUSD to challenge USDT, signaling deep involvement of institutional capital and a reconfiguration of the industry’s profit distribution landscape. Furthermore, M&A activities have surged by 26 times in just half a year, as the industry evolves from a startup-driven ecosystem toward a traditional finance model dominated by giants. Investors should be wary of the increased compliance costs and the resulting risk of heightened ecosystem concentration.

02Background and Current Market Situation

Reference date: 2026-07-09

The crypto market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with a neutral sentiment index (47/100). The current price of BTC is $62,057.00, down 2.4% in 24 hours and up 3.5% over 7 days, with 24-hour trading volume at $27.9B. The current price of ETH is $1,737.60, down 2.4% in 24 hours and up 7.2% over 7 days, with 24-hour trading volume at $10.4B. The current price of BNB is $567.95, down 1.7% in 24 hours and up 3.3% over 7 days, with 24-hour trading volume at $582M. The current price of SOL is $77.57, down 3.5% in 24 hours but up 0.3% over 7 days, with 24-hour trading volume at $2.3B.

The industry has evolved from being a speculative tool to becoming a core infrastructure in the global financial system. On 2026-07-07, the scale of stablecoin settlements reached $1.1 trillion, with average daily turnover exceeding $38 billion, surpassing that of traditional payment networks. On the same day, Tether destroyed $2.5 billion worth of USDT, setting a record for single-day destruction and raising concerns about liquidity. On 2026-07-08, Strategy broke its “never sell tokens” policy and launched a Bitcoin monetization plan to address dividend pressures.

There is a structural divergence in the current market positions. BTC has a comprehensive rating of 65, a token economy score of 98, but only a liquidity score of 25. ETH has a comprehensive rating of 64, a technology score of 88, and a liquidity score of 30. BNB has a comprehensive rating of 58, a token economy score of 98, but a liquidity score of 22. SOL has a comprehensive rating of 57, a technology score of 78, and a liquidity score of 32. In terms of capital flow, funds shifted from the AI sector to Restaking and DeFi during 2026-W27. On 2026-07-07, Solana’s network transaction volume hit an annual high, with active addresses increasing by 38%.

Regarding key milestones, on 2026-07-07, Vitalik Buterin unveiled a four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum, covering second-level confirmation and post-quantum security. On 2026-07-01, Robinhood launched its own blockchain, integrating stock tokens and RWA assets. On 2026-07-02, the crypto market saw $370 million in liquidations in a single day, highlighting the risks associated with high leverage. On 2026-07-07, Bitcoin dropped below the critical support level of $62,000, triggering liquidations worth over $169 million due to leverage. At the regulatory level, on 2026-07-07, Trump’s efforts to establish strategic reserves faced obstacles from various departments, with the Department of Commerce potentially taking over regulation. On 2026-07-03, senators proposed banning officials from issuing tokens, targeting the $140 million in profits generated by Trump’s family.

03Core Analysis

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Technical Aspect: High Leverage Vulnerability vs. Declining On-Chain Activity

The current market shows significant vulnerabilities from a technical perspective. BTC is trading at $62,057.00, with a 24-hour decline of -2.4% and a 7-day gain of +3.5%; ETH is at $1,737.60, also showing a 24-hour drop of -2.4% but a 7-day increase of +7.2%. Although there has been a rebound on the weekly chart, selling pressure remains strong intraday. On 2026-07-07, BTC broke below the key support level of $62,000, triggering leveraged liquidations worth over $1.69B, and long positions in ETH and SOL suffered heavily. This incident exposed the market’s vulnerability when spot discounts coexist with high leverage. Despite three consecutive days of net inflows for ETFs, these could not offset the severe fluctuations in leveraged positions.

On-chain data reveals structural disparities. The SOL network saw record transaction volumes for the year, with weekly gains leading among major cryptocurrencies. Meme coins like ANSEM drove a 38% surge in active addresses, indicating high-frequency trading driven by speculation. However, this enthusiasm did not translate into solid value support. SOL is currently trading at $77.57, with a 24-hour decline of -3.5% and a 7-day decline of -0.3%, suggesting that funds are withdrawing quickly after short-term profits. In contrast, ETH saw record withdrawals in three years, with Binance reporting a weekly outflow of $1.23B, indicating increased willingness to hold the asset on-chain. Yet, ETH’s overall rating is only 64, with a liquidity score of 30, which severely limits its technical upside potential.

Fundamental Aspect: Intensifying Institutional Competition and Regulatory Uncertainty

On the fundamental side, the dynamic rebalancing of institutional funds is playing a key role. On 2026-07-07, Tether destroyed $25B in USDT in a single day, setting a historical record and raising concerns about tightened market liquidity. Meanwhile, Strategy initiated a token sales monetization strategy, breaking its “never sell tokens” rule to address the huge dividend pressures from STRC preferred stocks, further increasing expectations of selling pressure in the market. This outflow of funds at the institutional level, combined with the reduction in stablecoin supply, suppressed short-term rebound possibilities.

Regulatory and policy dynamics have become even more complex. On 2026-07-07, Trump’s efforts to establish strategic reserves faced obstacles from various departments, with the Treasury’s authority under question and the Commerce Department possibly taking over regulation. Congress plans to purchase millions of tokens over five years, introducing considerable uncertainty regarding policy implementation. Additionally, major central banks and regulatory bodies around the world are engaged in intense debates over the nature of stablecoins. Countries such as Brazil, the UK, and India have tightened their policies, signaling a shift from stablecoins as innovative tools to regulated assets, thereby increasing compliance costs for the industry. Although the scale of stablecoin settlements reaches $1.1T, with daily transactions exceeding $38B—outpacing traditional payment networks—tighter regulations may curb their growth potential.

Market Aspect: Neutral Sentiment and Sector Rotation

Overall market sentiment is neutral, with an AI-related sentiment score of 45/100. On 2026-07-08, the crypto market had neutral sentiment (47/100), as BTC dropped to $62,200 and ETH followed suit to $1,738. All sectors declined, with DeFi leading the drop at 9%, while AI and GameFi both fell by more than 5%. There was a clear shift in capital flow, with funds moving away from the previously popular AI sector this week toward Restaking and DeFi, while ecosystem-related sectors remained largely stagnant.

Sector rotation patterns indicate that the Restaking sector rebounded strongly due to expectations of high returns and favorable liquidity conditions, becoming the strongest theme this week, followed closely by the DeFi sector. However, AI Agents and AI/Agent sectors experienced profit-taking, with significant 24-hour declines and noticeable outflows of funds. This rotation is mainly driven by existing funds shifting between different sub-sectors, without significant new capital inflows. On 2026-07-02, the crypto market saw liquidations worth $3.7B in a single day, primarily due to cascading margin calls resulting from high leverage, serving as a warning to investors about the risks associated with extreme market conditions.

In summary, the market is in a phase of consolidation, with Whale sales and regulatory uncertainty suppressing short-term rebounds. BTC has an overall rating of 65, ETH of 64, BNB of 58, and SOL of 57—all indicating serious shortcomings in community activity and liquidity. It is recommended to adopt a cautious approach and wait for increased ecosystem participation before making investments.

04Data and Indicators

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Quantitative Performance of Key Assets

As of the benchmark date, major cryptocurrency assets showed a trend of consolidation with fluctuations. The current price of BTC is $62,057.00, with a 24-hour decline of -2.4% and a 7-day increase of +3.5%. The 24-hour trading volume reached $27.9B, giving it a market value of $1245B. ETH’s current price is $1,737.60, with a 24-hour decline of -2.4% and a 7-day increase of +7.2%. Its 24-hour trading volume is $10.4B, resulting in a market value of $210B. BNB’s current price is $567.95, showing a 24-hour decline of -1.7% and a 7-day increase of +3.3%. The 24-hour trading volume is $582M, with a market value of $77B. SOL’s current price is $77.57, experiencing a 24-hour decline of -3.5% and a 7-day decrease of -0.3%. Its 24-hour trading volume is $2.3B, corresponding to a market value of $45B.

Multi-dimensional Rating and Technical Analysis

Based on token rating data, these assets vary in performance across technical, fundamental, and liquidity aspects. BTC has a comprehensive score of 65, with a technical score of 75, a fundamental score of 76, but a liquidity score of only 25, while its token economics score is as high as 98. ETH boasts a comprehensive score of 64, led by a strong technical score of 88, a fundamental score of 73, a liquidity score of 30, and a token economics score of 85. BNB’s comprehensive score is 58, with a technical score of 72, a fundamental score of 62, a liquidity score of 22, and a token economics score of 98. SOL’s comprehensive score is 57, featuring a technical score of 78, a fundamental score of 64, a liquidity score of 32, and a token economics score of 79.

Market Sentiment and Sector Rotation

The overall market sentiment remains neutral, with the AI sector’s sentiment score at 45/100. Capital flow patterns indicate clear sector rotation, as funds moved out of sectors such as AI Agents, AI/Agent, and DEX to sectors like Restaking, DeFi, and privacy coins. Sector strength data shows that privacy coins have the highest strength at 5.7, while BTC ecosystem, Solana ecosystem, ETH ecosystem, and stablecoins all have a strength of 5.0. RWA has a strength score of 4.1.

Key Events and Liquidity Indicators

On 2026-07-08, BTC ETFs saw a daily net outflow of $26M, reflecting short-term adjustments by institutional investors. During the same period, Tether burned 2.5 billion USDT, drawing attention to market liquidity. Despite concerns over selling pressure, on-chain data shows that bears were liquidated, indicating that the market is in a phase of consolidation with fluctuations.

05Competitive Landscape

Reference Date: 2026-07-09

The current cryptocurrency market is characterized by BTC as the absolute core, with ETH, SOL, and BNB competing in a multi-polar structure. BTC has a market capitalization of $1245B, giving it a dominant position in the market. Its token economy score is as high as 98, its technology score is 75, and its overall score is 65, reflecting its strong value storage capabilities and network security. ETH has a market capitalization of $210B. Although it lags far behind BTC in terms of market capitalization, its technology score is as high as 88, with an overall score of 64. Backed by Vitalik Buterin’s four-year upgrade plan for Lean Ethereum, it is working to strengthen its technical foundation through second-level confirmation and post-quantum security measures, aiming to solidify its role in institutional settlement networks.

SOL ranks fourth with a market capitalization of $45B. It has a technology score of 78 and an overall score of 57. Thanks to its high throughput, it is rapidly expanding in retail adoption and high-yield financial products, becoming a major competitor to ETH in the high-performance public chain space. BNB has a market capitalization of $77B. Its token economy score is also 98, with an overall score of 58. Leveraging the stable flow within the Binance ecosystem, especially the average daily trading volume of $38 billion in stablecoins over weekends, it exerts a key role as infrastructure, demonstrating unique advantages in terms of ecological closure.

The focus of competition has shifted from purely technical performance to ecological control and compliance. The ETH Foundation has separated its commercial functions, and giants such as Bitmine have invested in establishing Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional, creating three major power centers. Institutional participation and price dynamics will determine the future direction of the ecosystem. Meanwhile, mergers and acquisitions have increased by 26 times in just half a year, putting the startup ecosystem under pressure to integrate. The industry is following traditional financial paths, with rising compliance costs forcing venture capitalists to adopt a more cautious approach. BTC, on the other hand, is further reinforcing its narrative as “digital gold” through political donations and proposals for strategic reserves. Despite doubts about the authority of the Treasury Department, the Commerce Department may take over regulation, and a congressional proposal to purchase millions of BTC over five years continues to strengthen expectations of its long-term value. ETH and SOL compete differently in terms of technical approaches: the former focuses on security and institutional settlement, while the latter emphasizes speed and user experience. BNB maintains high user loyalty through internal ecological circulation.

06Risks and Opportunities

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Key Risks

1. Regulatory Jurisdiction Conflicts and Policy Uncertainty (Probability: High) Trump’s efforts to establish a strategic reserve program face obstacles from various departments, with the Treasury Department’s authority in question. The Commerce Department may take over regulation, and Congress plans to purchase millions of coins over five years. This struggle between executive and legislative powers could lead to delays in policy implementation or ambiguous enforcement standards. Response Strategy: Closely monitor congressional legislative progress and the Commerce Department’s regulatory details. Avoid making excessive bets on any single compliance path before policies are clarified, and diversify holdings to mitigate liquidity shocks caused by regulatory changes.

2. Erosion of the Legal Foundation for Digital Asset Ownership (Probability: Medium) The Digital Chamber is fighting lawsuits in New York State, opposing the classification of dormant wallets as lost property, with the involved amount reaching $234 billion. If judicial decisions favor traditional definitions of lost property, it will significantly undermine the legal security of self-custodied assets. Response Strategy: Prioritize using custodian services with comprehensive legal indemnity clauses, or adopt multi-signature cold wallet solutions to ensure private key control remains independent of judicial disputes.

3. Shrinking Startup Ecosystem and Increased Industry Monopoly (Probability: High) Rising compliance costs and venture capital pulling back to later stages have led to a 26-fold increase in mergers and acquisitions over half a year, resulting in the extinction of many startups. The industry is following traditional financial models, reducing innovation momentum while further solidifying dominance by a few key players. Response Strategy: Avoid high-risk early-stage startups and focus instead on established protocols or mature projects with proven business models. Take advantage of market fluctuations during merger and acquisition periods to make strategic investments at lower prices.

Key Opportunities

1. Strategic Shifts by Traditional Asset Management Giants Bring In Additional Capital Vanguard has broken its long-standing resistance to crypto, urgently hiring digital asset experts to develop tokenization and stablecoin initiatives. This move signals the official entry of traditional financial capital into the sector, which is expected to boost overall market liquidity and institutional participation. Response Strategy: Pay attention to infrastructure projects and compliant tokenized assets that are closely partnered with giants like Vanguard, and prepare in advance to benefit from these developments.

2. Stablecoins Reshape Global Payment and Financial Infrastructure According to Binance data, stablecoins see an average daily turnover of $38 billion over weekends, surpassing traditional payment networks and driving retail adoption as well as the popularity of high-yield financial products. The advantages of stablecoins in cross-border settlements and managing idle funds are becoming increasingly evident. Response Strategy: Allocate mainstream stablecoins as cash management tools, use their high liquidity to participate in DeFi yield farming, and also pay attention to issuing ecosystems with strong compliance credentials.

3. On-Chain U.S. Stocks Meet the Demand for Cross-Border Capital Flow After the Securities Regulatory Commission imposed heavy fines on three cross-border brokers, crypto exchanges are leveraging on-chain U.S. stocks to absorb excess capital, with an average daily net inflow of $42 million. Regulatory restrictions on traditional channels are pushing capital toward on-chain solutions, reshaping the flow of cross-border capital. Response Strategy: Utilize on-chain U.S. stock trading tools to capture arbitrage opportunities arising from fluctuations in traditional markets. At the same time, carefully assess the compliance risks and liquidity levels of on-chain trading platforms.

07Conclusions and Recommendations

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

The current crypto market sentiment index stands at 45/100, indicating a neutral and volatile trend. On a macro level, the $140 million in crypto profits generated by the Trump family has raised concerns over political donations and conflicts of interest, prompting senators to propose banning officials from issuing their own cryptocurrencies as a solution. Regulatory battles are intensifying, with questions arising regarding the authority of the Treasury Department; the Commerce Department may take over regulatory oversight of strategic reserves, and Congress plans to purchase millions of coins over five years. The industry structure is undergoing profound restructuring, with soaring compliance costs driving merger and acquisition activity up 26 times in just half a year, leading to a reshuffle in the startup ecosystem. Asset management giant Vanguard has broken its long-standing resistance and is urgently hiring digital asset specialists to develop tokenization solutions. The stablecoin sector is witnessing a final showdown, with Coinbase partnering with 140 institutions to launch OUSD in an effort to redefine profit distribution, causing Circle’s stock price to plummet by 16%. There is an average daily inflow of $42 million worth of U.S. stocks on blockchain platforms, addressing the demand resulting from the ban on cross-border brokers. The Ethereum Foundation is stepping back from commercial functions, with giants like Bitmine investing to establish a new power center.

Recommendations for Institutional Investors:

1. Focus on regulatory arbitrage and reserve assets: Given the disputes over the Treasury Department’s authority and the potential regulatory role of the Commerce Department, institutions should reassess the compliance pathways for strategic reserve assets and pay attention to the implementation timeline of Congress’s plan to purchase millions of BTC over five years.
2. Invest in tokenization and stablecoin infrastructure: Vanguard’s shift toward tokenization and OUSD, which challenges the dominance of USDT, shows that traditional financial giants are deeply involved in underlying infrastructure. Institutions should prioritize investing in stablecoin issuers and tokenization platforms with compliance advantages to capture the strategic benefits of this shift from rejection to active engagement.
3. Be cautious of M&A integration risks: M&A activity in the industry has surged by 26 times, accelerating the extinction of startups. Institutions must carefully assess the risk of early-stage projects being acquired or phased out by larger players and should instead focus on leading platforms with competitive advantages.

Recommendations for Retail Investors:

1. Avoid politically connected assets: The substantial profits made by the Trump family and senators’ proposals to ban cryptocurrency issuance highlight the high policy risks associated with tokens linked to politicians. Retail investors should stay away from meme coins and assets closely tied to politicians to avoid regulatory actions stemming from conflicts of interest.
2. Take advantage of blockchain-based U.S. stock services: After the ban on cross-border brokers, blockchain platforms see an average daily inflow of $42 million in funds related to U.S. stocks. Retail investors can utilize cryptocurrency exchanges that offer such services to access cross-border investment opportunities otherwise unavailable in traditional markets.
3. Pay attention to stablecoin-based investment products: Stablecoins see an average daily turnover of $38 billion over the weekend, surpassing that of traditional payment networks. Retail investors can use highly liquid stablecoins to pursue higher-yield investment options and improve capital efficiency, but they must be vigilant about potential risks arising from competition among issuers.

Recommendations for Developers:

1. Keep up with Ethereum’s technological upgrades: Vitalik Buterin has released a four-year roadmap for Lean Ethereum, featuring second-layer settlement and post-quantum security features. Developers need to evaluate the risks associated with these technological changes and adapt their applications in advance to remain competitive in a vision of trillion-dollar-scale transactions.
2. Adjust to the shift in commercial control: As the Ethereum Foundation takes a more neutral role, giants like Bitmine are taking charge of commercial aspects. When building ecosystem applications, developers should consider collaborating with commercial entities such as Ethlabs rather than relying solely on foundation support.
3. Strengthen compliance and asset ownership protection: Lawsuits in New York State and efforts by digital business associations to define dormant wallets underscore the importance of securing digital asset ownership. Developers designing wallets and asset management tools must ensure legal compliance to prevent users’ assets from being easily classified as lost property.

08Related Reads

1. “$76 Billion in Weekend Settlements: How Stablecoins Are Outpacing Traditional Banks?”
2. “Strategy Breaks Its Coin-Selling Rule; Stablecoin Giants Unite for a High-Stakes Crypto Political Gamble by 2026”
3. “M&A Activities Surge 26-Fold: The Evolution of Cryptocurrency from Bedroom Code to Giant Monopolies Over a Decade”
4. “$140 Million in Crypto Profits Declared Legal; Intense Conflict Erupts Within Family”
5. “Battle Over Ownership of 390,000 Dormant BTCs: Digital Business Associations Counter New York State Lawsuit”
6. “$1.26 Billion in Annual Dividends: Strategy Abandons Its ‘Never Sell Coins’ Principle and Starts Monetization”
7. “Foundations Retire to Neutrality; How Giant Capital Controls the Lifeline of Commercialization”
8. “RWA Leaders Attack Perp DEXs: 20x Leverage Reshapes Wall Street’s On-Chain Logic”
9. “Regulations Block Cross-Border Brokers; On-Chain US Stocks Attract $42 Million Daily”
10. “Vitalik Buterin’s Four-Year Roadmap: Can Ethereum Maintain Institutional Settlements?”
11. “Coinbase Teams Up with 140 Giants to Create OUSD; Circle’s Stock Plummets 16% in This Strategic Move”
12. “Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Plans Stalled: Treasury’s Authority Under Question, Commerce Department Becomes Candidate”
13. “Senator Proposes Banning Officials from Issuing Cryptocurrencies, Targeting Trump Family’s $140 Million in Profits”
14. “Asset Management Giants Rush to Hire New Leaders: From Rejecting Cryptocurrency to Investing in Tokenization”