Market Structure Analysis (Issue 13 · Week 28, 2026)

01Executive Summary

[Core Conclusion]. Data from this period shows that stablecoins see an average daily turnover of $38 billion over weekends, surpassing traditional payment networks. This indicates that crypto infrastructure is fundamentally reshaping the global financial settlement system. Strategy received approval to sell $1.25 billion worth of tokens, breaking its “never sell tokens” rule and signaling that institutional holdings have entered a new phase of monetization. Coinbase, in partnership with 140 institutions, launched OUSD to redefine profit distribution, triggering an ultimate struggle for interests within the stablecoin sector. M&A activities have surged 26 times in just half a year, as the industry moves toward replicating the traditional financial model dominated by giants.

02Background and Current Market Situation

Background and Market Status

As of 2026-07-09, the total global cryptocurrency market value reached $2.23 trillion, with 24-hour trading volume at $66.7 billion. BTC maintained a dominance rate of 55.9%. The market sentiment index dropped to 47/100, indicating a neutral and volatile trend. The current price of BTC is $62,290.00, down 0.6% in 24 hours; ETH’s current price is $1,739.70, down 0.7% over the same period. Although traditional funds are accelerating their investment in tokenized assets, whale sales and regulatory uncertainties are suppressing short-term recovery prospects.

The development of this industry has undergone a paradigm shift from early geek experiments to institutional dominance. In 2026, rising compliance costs and venture capital firms pulling back to later stages led to a 26-fold increase in merger and acquisition activity within just half a year. The startup ecosystem is undergoing structural reshaping, with the industry trajectory beginning to mirror the characteristics of traditional financial monopolies. On the policy front, the U.S. CFTC explicitly rejected CBDCs, making anti-CBDC policies a core government priority, while instead promoting regulated private stablecoins—marking the official integration of the crypto industry into the U.S. financial regulatory framework.

The current market landscape shows significant differentiation. BTC holds a dominant position as a value store, with a market value of $1,249 billion and daily trading volume of $27.2 billion. However, its rating is constrained by low community engagement. ETH has a market value of $210 billion and daily trading volume of $10.0 billion. Vitalik Buterin released a four-year upgrade roadmap focused on second-level confirmation speeds and post-quantum security, aiming to strengthen its role in institutional settlement networks. BNB currently trades at $569.72 with a market value of $77 billion. Despite having a token economics score of 98, its limited liquidity affects its overall rating. SOL is priced at $77.81 with a market value of $45 billion. While it boasts a strong technical ecosystem, it also faces liquidity challenges.

Capital flow data indicates that this week, funds shifted from the AI sector to Restaking and DeFi platforms. Stablecoin infrastructure continues to strengthen, with average daily turnover reaching $38 billion over the weekend—surpassing traditional payment networks and boosting retail adoption. Nevertheless, high leverage risks remain, as daily liquidation events worth $370 million serve as a reminder for the market to be cautious about extreme volatility. Overall, the market is in a phase of consolidation, awaiting clearer macroeconomic policies and new capital inflows.

03Core Analysis

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Technical Dimension: On-chain Restructuring and Liquidity Competition The current price of BTC is $62,290.00, with a 24h trading volume of $27.2B. Its technical score is 75, reflecting strong advantages in token economics (98 points), but its liquidity score is only 25, indicating insufficient market depth. The current price of ETH is $1,739.70, with a 24h trading volume of $10.0B. It boasts a high technical score of 88 and a fundamental score of 73. Although its liquidity score of 30 is relatively low, the Lean Ethereum four-year roadmap aims for second-level confirmation and post-quantum security, providing a foundational support for institutional settlement initiatives. The current price of SOL is $77.81, with a 24h trading volume of $2.2B. Its technical score is 78, but the contrast between its liquidity score of 32 and a overall rating of grade C shows a robust ecosystem yet weak market absorption capacity. The current price of BNB is $569.72, with a 24h trading volume of $539M. Its technical score is 72, and its token economy score is 98, yet its liquidity score is only 22, as insufficient community activity limits its performance. Overall, mainstream cryptocurrencies have solid technical and fundamental foundations, but liquidity shortcomings serve as a key factor amplifying price volatility.

Fundamental Dimension: Policy Shifts and Divergent Institutional Behaviors There has been a significant shift in U.S. policy. CFTC Chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo explicitly rejected the idea of a CBDC on July 7, making the opposition to CBDCs a core policy of the Trump administration, instead pushing for regulated private stablecoins. This policy change is beneficial for compliant stablecoin projects. Tether destroyed $2.5 billion worth of USDT in just one day on July 7, setting a historical record and raising concerns about tightening liquidity. Meanwhile, institutional behaviors show polarization: Strategy broke its “never sell” principle on July 8 by initiating a Bitcoin monetization plan to address pressure from STRC dividend payments, thereby increasing short-term selling pressure. On the other hand, Pioneer Fund urgently hired a head for digital assets on July 7, signaling its shift from rejecting crypto to focusing on tokenization. Additionally, Coinbase, in collaboration with 140 institutions, launched OUSD, restructuring the profit distribution mechanism, which caused Circle’s stock price to plummet by 16%. The stablecoin sector has thus entered a fierce struggle between intermediaries and issuers over ultimate interests.

Market Dimension:存量 Competition and Sector Rotation The total global cryptocurrency market value is $2.23T, with a 24h trading volume of $66.7B. BTC holds a dominance rate of 55.9%, and market sentiment is neutral (45/100). This week, capital shifted from the AI sector to Restaking and DeFi. AI Agents suffered significant losses due to profit-taking, while Restaking became the strongest trend driven by high return expectations. The DeFi sector followed closely, with the ETH ecosystem and DEXs performing well; DEXs even saw a 1.2% rise on July 7 despite overall market downturns. However, movements by Whales have intensified volatility. Tether’s token destruction and Strategy’s sales have drawn attention to liquidity issues, while Whale sell-offs and regulatory uncertainties are suppressing short-term rebounds. Stablecoins saw an average daily turnover of $38 billion over the weekend, surpassing traditional payment networks and boosting retail adoption. Although merger and acquisition activities have increased by 26 times in half a year, putting the startup ecosystem at risk of “extinction,” there are clear signs of institutions accumulating assets. The market is currently in a period of consolidation, awaiting the entry of new trillions in capital.

04Data and Indicators

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Quantitative Performance of Key Assets

As of the benchmark date, the total global cryptocurrency market value was $2.23T, with a 24-hour trading volume of $66.7B. BTC maintained a dominance rate of 55.9%. The prices and volatility data for major assets are as follows:

BTC and ETH showed divergent trends. ETH experienced a 7-day gain of +6.7%, significantly outperforming BTC’s +2.2%, indicating a shift in capital toward the Ethereum ecosystem. SOL performed relatively weakly, with a 7-day decline of -1.0%, and continued to fall by -0.9% in 24 hours. BNB remained in a slight range, rising by +0.3% in 24 hours and gaining +2.9% over 7 days.

Multi-dimensional Rating and Technical Analysis

Based on the latest token rating data, there are significant differences among assets in terms of technology, fundamentals, and liquidity:

ETH scored highly in terms of technology at 88, the highest among the four assets, reflecting its strong recent price performance and increasing ecosystem activity. Although BTC’s technology score (75) is slightly lower than ETH’s, its fundamentals score (76) and token economy score (98) are the highest, highlighting its stability as a value storage asset. However, BTC’s liquidity score is only 25, while ETH’s is 30, indicating that despite active price fluctuations, their underlying liquidity metrics remain insufficient according to the rating model. SOL has a decent technology score of 78, but its overall score is low at 57, mainly due to weaker fundamentals (64) and token economy scores (79). Although BNB’s token economy score is 98, its liquidity score is only 22, resulting in an overall score of 58, which reflects challenges in ecosystem participation and liquidity.

Market Sentiment and Capital Flow Shifts

The market sentiment index stood at 45/100, indicating a neutral market outlook. Sector rotation signals suggest that capital is flowing out of previously popular sectors such as AI Agents toward areas like Restaking, DeFi, and privacy coins. The strength index for the privacy coin sector reached 5.7, ranking high, while the strength indices for the BTC ecosystem, Solana ecosystem, ETH ecosystem, and stablecoins were all 5.0.

Regarding ETF capital flows, BTC ETFs saw a daily net outflow of $85M on 2026-07-08, indicating short-term profit-taking or rebalancing activities by institutions. Despite these selling pressures, on-chain data revealed complex movements among Whales. Tether destroyed 2.5 billion USDT in a single day, drawing attention to liquidity issues, while Strategy initiated a token sales monetization strategy that exacerbated market volatility. Overall, the market is in a phase of consolidation, with existing capital competing among different segments, lacking clear new capital inflows to drive growth.

05Competitive landscape

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

The current crypto market exhibits a clear hierarchical structure. BTC holds an absolute dominant position with a market value of $1249B, followed closely by ETH at $210B. BNB and SOL have market values of $77B and $45B respectively, creating a pattern of “one leader and several strong contenders.” In terms of technological development, ETH is advancing its four-year Lean Ethereum upgrade plan, focusing on second-level confirmation and post-quantum security to solidify its role in institutional settlements. Meanwhile, BTC relies on its immutable ownership foundation. In the dispute over the ownership of 390,000 dormant BTC coins, the Digital Chamber emphasized its legal status as the cornerstone of digital asset ownership, with the involved amount reaching $234 billion.

Regarding user base and ecosystem advantages, ETH’s ecosystem is undergoing a power restructuring. The foundation has divested its commercial functions, and giants such as Bitmine have invested in establishing Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional, creating three major power centers. Institutional participation and price dynamics will determine the future direction of this ecosystem. BNB benefits from the Binance ecosystem, with its stablecoin seeing average daily turnover of $38 billion over weekends, surpassing traditional payment networks. This helps drive retail adoption and the popularity of high-yield financial products, thereby reshaping global financial infrastructure. Although SOL has a high technical rating, it faces rising compliance costs and backtracking venture capital investment. M&A activities in this sector have surged by 26 times in just half a year, and its startup ecosystem is experiencing mass extinction as the industry follows traditional financial paths.

BTC further consolidates its status as digital gold thanks to enhanced political and legal backing. ETH aims to retain its position in institutional settlement markets through technological upgrades and ecosystem power restructuring. BNB leverages its stablecoin circulation advantages to deepen retail and financial product penetration. SOL, on the other hand, faces pressure for ecosystem contraction amid industry consolidation. All these cryptocurrencies need to continue investing in technology, compliance, and ecosystem development to compete in an increasingly fierce market landscape.

06Risks and Opportunities

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

Key Risks

1. Risk of Uncertainty in Regulatory Framework (Probability: High) Trump’s efforts to establish a strategic reserve program face obstacles from various departments. The authority of the Treasury Department is under question, with the Commerce Department potentially taking over regulation. Congress plans to purchase millions of BTC over five years. Such fluctuations in administrative power could lead to delays in policy implementation or ambiguous execution standards. Response Strategy: Closely monitor legislative developments in the Commerce Department and Congress. Avoid excessive leverage during regulatory gaps and maintain liquidity to cope with sudden policy changes.

2. Risk of Legal Ownership and Asset Freezing (Probability: Medium) A lawsuit in New York State involves 390,000 dormant BTC. The Digital Chamber opposes classifying them as lost property, with the total value at stake reaching $234 billion. If judicial decisions undermine the foundation of digital asset ownership, it could trigger widespread compliance panic. Response Strategy: Review the legal isolation structure of self-custody wallets to ensure that asset holders are separated from risks in specific jurisdictions, thereby avoiding exposure to a single jurisdiction’s laws.

3. Risk of Shrinkage in the Startup Ecosystem and Monopoly Formation (Probability: High) Rising compliance costs and retreats by venture capital firms have led to a 26-fold increase in mergers and acquisitions over half a year, resulting in the decline of the startup ecosystem. If the industry follows traditional financial models, innovation may stall, and monopoly power among leading companies could increase. Response Strategy: Avoid high-risk early-stage startups and focus on blue-chip assets with stable cash flows and strong compliance frameworks to reduce exposure to tail risks.

Key Opportunities

1. Capital Inflow Driven by Institutional Strategic Shifts Invesco has broken its long-standing resistance to cryptocurrencies and is urgently hiring experts in digital assets to develop tokenization and stablecoin initiatives. The strategic shift of these asset management giants signals the onset of large-scale entry by traditional capital. Response Strategy: Pay close attention to tokenization infrastructure projects in collaboration with institutions like Invesco, and proactively invest in related opportunities.

2. Benefits from Restructuring of Cross-Border Capital Flows After the Securities Regulatory Commission imposed heavy fines on three cross-border brokers, crypto exchanges have stepped in to meet the increased demand through on-chain U.S. stock trading, resulting in average daily net inflows of $42 million. Regulatory restrictions on traditional channels have actually enhanced the alternative financial functions of the crypto network. Response Strategy: Invest in tokens from leading exchange ecosystems that support on-chain U.S. stock trading to capture the growth in trading volume brought about by cross-border capital flows.

3. Upgrading of Stablecoin Payment Infrastructure According to Binance data, stablecoins see an average daily turnover of $38 billion over weekends, surpassing traditional payment networks. This trend is driving retail adoption and the spread of high-yield financial products. Stablecoins are reshaping global financial infrastructure by improving asset turnover efficiency. Response Strategy: Increase the allocation of stablecoins in investment portfolios. Utilize their high liquidity to participate in DeFi yield strategies, while focusing on issuers with high transparency regarding their underlying assets.

07Conclusions and Recommendations

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-09

The market sentiment index scored 45/100, indicating a neutral outlook. The industry is undergoing a structured transformation from compliant startups to giant monopolies, with M&A activities surging by 26 times and the startup ecosystem facing significant reshuffling. On the policy front, Trump’s family’s $140 million in crypto earnings have sparked conflicts of interest, prompting senators to propose banning government officials from issuing cryptocurrencies as a solution. Regulatory battles are intensifying, with the Digital Chamber opposing New York State’s lawsuit against 390,000 dormant BTCs to protect the foundations of digital asset ownership. In terms of infrastructure, stablecoins saw average daily turnover of $38 billion over the weekend, surpassing traditional payment networks and reshaping global financial infrastructure. Asset management giant Vanguard is urgently recruiting specialists in digital assets, signaling a shift in its traditional finance strategy.

Institutional Investors: Focus on opportunities arising from the integration of traditional finance and cryptocurrency. Vanguard’s moves indicate that tokenization and stablecoins have become key areas for institutions. It is important to be vigilant about policy risks—Trump’s efforts to establish strategic reserves have faced obstacles, and the authority of the Treasury Department is under question, with the Commerce Department possibly taking over regulation. At the same time, investors should assess the impact of Ethereum’s four-year Lean Ethereum upgrade plan on institutional settlement capabilities to determine long-term allocation strategies.

Retail Investors: Take advantage of the high liquidity and yield advantages of stablecoins. Weekend turnover data for stablecoins demonstrates their role as infrastructure in retail adoption and wealth management. Be aware of how political donations and policy changes may affect market sentiment—the crypto industry has already spent over $189 million on political campaigns, which could lead to short-term volatility. Avoid participating in high-risk meme coin speculation, as senators have proposed banning elected officials from issuing cryptocurrencies.

Developers: Adapt to trends in compliance and M&A. Rising compliance costs are forcing the industry to follow traditional financial models, prompting startups to seek mergers, acquisitions, or additional venture capital support. Pay attention to the new power structure after the Ethereum Foundation separates its commercial functions—companies like Bitmine, through its investment in Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional, will play a key role in driving commercialization. There are also risks associated with technological restructuring, requiring assessments of the impact of post-quantum security and second-layer solutions on existing protocols.

08Related Reads

1. “$76 Billion in Weekend Settlements: How Stablecoins Are Outpacing Traditional Banks?”
2. “Strategy Breaks Its Rule of Not Selling Coins; Stablecoin Giants Unite for a High-Stakes Crypto Political Gamble by 2026”
3. “Coinbase Teams Up with 140 Giants to Create OUSD; Circle’s Stock Plummets 16%”
4. “M&A Activities Surge 26-Fold: The Evolution of Cryptocurrency from Bedroom Code to Giant Monopolies Over a Decade”
5. “$140 Million in Crypto Profits Declared Legal; Intense Conflict Erupts within Family”
6. “Trump’s Bitcoin Reserves Face Hurdles: Doubts About Treasury’s Authority, Commerce Department as Potential Candidate”
7. “Battle Over Ownership of 390,000 Dormant BTCs: Digital Business Associations Oppose New York State Lawsuit”
8. “Vitalik Buterin’s Four-Year Roadmap: Can Ethereum Maintain Its Role in Institutional Settlements?”
9. “Asset Management Giants Rush to Hire New Leaders: From Rejecting Cryptocurrency to Investing in Tokenization”
10. “From Calling Bitcoin a Scam to Embracing It—All Because of Fear of China Taking the Lead”
11. “Senator Proposes Banning Officials from Issuing Cryptocurrencies, Targeting Trump Family’s $140 Million in Profits”
12. “$1.26 Billion in Annual Dividends: Strategy Breaks Its ‘Never Sell Coins’ Principle and Starts Monetization”
13. “Foundations Retire to Neutrality; How Giant Capital Controls the Lifeline of Commercialization”
14. “Regulations Block Cross-Border Brokers; On-Chain US Stocks Attract $42 Million Daily”