Predictive Markets Daily (Issue 5 · Week 28, 2026)

01Popular Prediction Market Events

July 11, 2026, serves as the data benchmark date. The Polymarket platform has seen significant activity recently, with Kalshi recording weekly trading volume of $3.073 billion and Polymarket at $1.189 billion, indicating high activity in prediction markets. Despite Goldman Sachs and Google cutting off access for their employees and partners and the industry facing increasing regulatory pressure, the platform has introduced invitation-only perpetual contracts that support 20x leverage for 10 assets including BTC and gold, aiming to challenge Binance and dYdX. Below are the Top 8 most popular prediction events based on 24h trading volume:

1. Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia

• Current Yes probability: 1.6% (+1.4pp)
• 24h trading volume: $13,605.4K
• Analysis: This is a highly certain event (No > 75%). Market consensus strongly favors a specific candidate or maintaining the status quo, with a 1.6% probability suggesting that the market considers this option almost impossible. As a leading macro-political market, its low volatility reflects stability in geopolitical expectations, indirectly reducing the geopolitical risk premium in the crypto market.

2. Norway vs. England - Additional Markets

• Current Yes probability: 35.4% (+0.5pp)
• 24h trading volume: $2,890.9K
• Analysis: This is a divisive event. Whales are betting that Norway will score more than 2.5 goals against England, with the current win probability at 56%. A 35.4% probability indicates considerable uncertainty in the market regarding the outcome, with funds fiercely competing between long and short positions.

3. Norway vs. England

• Current Yes probability: 23.6% (+1.0pp)
• 24h trading volume: $2,379.6K
• Analysis: This is a highly certain event (No > 75%). The market believes the probability of England winning or drawing is much higher than Norway winning, with a 23.6% Yes probability implying that a Norwegian victory is seen as a low-probability event.

4. Norway vs. England - Exact Score

• Current Yes probability: 2.6% (+0.2pp)
• 24h trading volume: $2,040.1K
• Analysis: This is a highly certain event. The extremely low probability indicates very little market consensus on this specific score combination, representing a long-tail risk bet.

5. UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor

• Current Yes probability: 69.5% (+2.0pp)
• 24h trading volume: $1,752.1K
• Analysis: This is a highly certain event (Yes > 75% marginally). The market leans toward Max Holloway winning, with a 69.5% probability showing a clear advantage but not yet absolute consensus, leaving room for further speculation.

6. Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox

• Current Yes probability: 4.5% (-39.0pp)
• 24h trading volume: $1,103.4K
• Analysis: This is a highly certain event (No > 75%). The Yes probability dropped significantly by 39.0pp, indicating that the market quickly revised its expectations, strongly pessimistic about this option, with funds rapidly withdrawing.

7. LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON

• Current Yes probability: 86.5% (-4.0pp)
• 24h trading volume: $1,069.3K
• Analysis: This is a highly certain event (Yes > 75%). Although the probability decreased slightly, 86.5% still shows strong market confidence in Hanwha Life Esports winning, representing a low-risk arbitrage opportunity.

8. NBA: LeBron James' Next Team

• Current Yes probability: 41.2% (-20.5pp)
• 24h trading volume: $1,069.0K
• Analysis: This is a divisive event. The probability dropped significantly by 20.5pp, indicating weakened confidence in this specific team option, increased uncertainty, and shifting funds toward other potential destinations.

Analysis of Indirect Impact on the Crypto Market

Currently, the leading macro markets are mostly sports and political events, with no direct crypto price prediction markets. However, Polymarket’s perpetual contracts see 24h trading volume of $48.43 million, with ETH, BTC, and silver accounting for the majority of transactions. This shows that although traditional prediction markets focus on non-crypto events, the platform incorporates crypto assets into its trading system through derivative tools. Regulatory tightening on prediction markets by institutions like Goldman Sachs may drive some speculative funds toward decentralized crypto derivative markets, indirectly increasing the on-chain liquidity and volatility of BTC and ETH.

02Odds Analysis and Market Interpretation

03Odds Analysis and Market Interpretation

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-11

Federal Reserve’s July Decision: Cooling Down Expectations for Rate Cuts

For the “Fed Decision in July?” scenario, the market’s probability of a “Yes” outcome is 77.5%, with a 24-hour decline of 7.0 percentage points. The outstanding contract volume amounts to $9228.3K. This high implied probability indicates that the market strongly expects the Federal Reserve to take easing actions in July. However, the significant drop in probability suggests that some investors are adjusting their overly optimistic expectations or facing increased uncertainty regarding the policy path. Those betting on a “Yes” are doing so based on the current weak macroeconomic data and the downward trend in inflation, while those betting on a “No” expect the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for longer to fully curb inflation. Given BTC’s current price of $64,087.00 and its modest 24-hour gain of 1.7%, the crypto market has not experienced sharp fluctuations despite cooling down expectations for rate cuts. This indicates that investors’ sensitivity to macro policies is diminishing, or they may have already priced in some of the negative factors.

Norway vs. England: Whale Battles and Divergent Probabilities

For the “Norway vs. England - More Markets” scenario, the probability of a “Yes” outcome is 35.4% (up 0.5 percentage points), whereas for the main “Norway vs. England” market, it is only 23.6% (up 1.0 percentage point) [Sources 2, 3]. This difference in probabilities reflects divergent market pricing for different possible outcomes. Reports indicate that some Whales are betting on more than 2.5 total goals, with a current win rate of 56%. This contrasts with the low probability in the main market, suggesting that the market believes the match could be close, but Norway has a very slim chance of winning. Those betting on a “Yes” (Norway winning) are relying on England’s recent inconsistent form and Norway’s home-field advantage, while those betting on a “No” are focusing on England’s stronger overall team depth. BTC’s stable price of $64,087.00 provides liquidity support for high-risk sports betting, encouraging investors to diversify their investments into high-odds events when crypto assets are stable.

UFC 329: Holloway’s Advantage Solidified

For the “UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor” event, the market’s probability of a “Yes” outcome is 69.5% (up 2.0 percentage points), with an outstanding contract volume of $4816.9K. The high probability reflects widespread market confidence in Holloway’s victory, and the further increase in probability over 24 hours confirms this trend. Those betting on a “Yes” are citing Holloway’s recent record and McGregor’s uncertain recovery status, while those betting on a “No” are relying on McGregor’s star power and the potential for an underdog surprise. The high liquidity in this market aligns with the rise in ETH’s price to $1,791.87 (up 2.9% in 24 hours), indicating a rebound in risk appetite. Investors are willing to profit from or increase bets on high-probability events in the sports and entertainment sector.

Overall Market Sentiment Assessment

The current prediction market shows a structurally bullish sentiment, but with significant divergence. On the macro level, although expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have cooled, they still dominate (77.5% favoring a “Yes” outcome). In the sports and entertainment sector, probabilities for high-probability events like UFC are rising, while high-volatility events such as football see battles among Whales. Given BTC’s stable price of $64,087.00 and the stability of the global crypto market capitalization at $2.28T, market sentiment is not blindly optimistic but rather reflects rational pricing based on the fundamentals of specific events. Investors are seeking steady returns amid macro policy uncertainties, while also aiming for higher returns by betting on high-risk sports markets.

04Operation suggestions

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Benchmark Date: 2026-07-11

Operational Recommendations

1. Hedging Against Regulatory Risks: Adopt a Moderate Defensive Strategy Given that Goldman Sachs and Google have restricted access for their employees and partners, along with investigations by the CFTC and cases of insider trading, the industry is facing severe regulatory pressures and identity crises. If more Wall Street giants impose similar bans or if regulators issue new compliance restrictions, it is recommended to adopt a moderate defensive approach toward assets related to prediction markets to avoid excessive exposure to policy uncertainties.

• Time Frame: Next 2 weeks
• Triggers: Major financial institutions issue internal trading bans on prediction markets or regulatory bodies announce new enforcement actions.

2. Liquidity Arbitrage: Build Positions in Phases predict.fun has reduced its Maker fee to 2%, significantly lower than Polymarket’s range of 2.5%-6.3%, giving it a cost advantage in the fields of cryptocurrency and sports betting predictions. If predict.fun’s average daily trading volume continues to grow while slippage remains within reasonable levels, investors can consider building positions in assets related to its platform in phases to capture arbitrage opportunities arising from fee differences as well as the benefits of early user growth.

• Time Frame: This week
• Triggers: A significant increase in the daily trading volume on the predict.fun platform along with the continuation of its fee advantage.

3. Managing Leverage Risks: Gradually Reduce Positions Polymarket has introduced invitation-only perpetual contracts that support 20x leverage for 10 assets including BTC and gold, aiming to challenge Binance and dYdX. However, high-leverage risks and compliance issues still need to be monitored carefully. If there are severe price fluctuations or frequent liquidation events in the early stages of these perpetual contracts, it is advised to gradually reduce high-leverage positions and prioritize holding spot or low-leverage positions to avoid liquidity risks in extreme market conditions.

• Time Frame: This month
• Triggers: Significant one-day price swings or large-scale forced liquidations in the perpetual contract market.

Key Risk Warnings

1. Regulatory Compliance Risks The governor of North Carolina signed a bill recognizing CFTC oversight, imposing a 6% tax on prediction markets starting in 2027, while the tax rate for sports betting was immediately raised to 23%. If other states or the federal government introduce similar taxes or regulatory measures, it could lead to increased operational costs and a decline in user activity within the industry.

• Trigger Conditions: Other major jurisdictions announce similar taxes or strict regulatory policies targeting prediction markets.

2. Insider Trading and Legal Risks Giants like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have tightened rules regarding trading in prediction markets in response to concerns over insider trading, while Polymarket seeks regulatory approval. The industry is caught in a balance between compliance requirements and expansion efforts. If major insider trading scandals or legal lawsuits occur, it may lead to doubts about the fairness of prediction platforms and result in user loss.

• Trigger Conditions: Major media reports on significant insider trading cases or regulatory authorities filing formal lawsuits against key platforms.

3. Liquidity Risks Associated with High Leverage On the first day of its operation, Polymarket’s perpetual contracts saw trading volumes of nearly $50 million, with ETH, BTC, and silver accounting for the majority of transactions. High-leverage products may trigger chain reactions of liquidations during periods of heightened market volatility, leading to a shortage of liquidity on the platform or prices deviating sharply from fundamental values.

• Trigger Conditions: Abnormally high levels of forced liquidations in the perpetual contract market or a significant decline in the platform’s liquidity depth.

05Related Reads

1. “Kalshi的周交易额达30.73亿美元”
2. “高管们表示支持后禁令突然出台：预测市场面临高盛和谷歌的双重打压”
3. “预测市场进军永续合约领域：20倍杠杆覆盖10大资产类别”
4. “Polymarket出现价值10.5万美元的挪威与英格兰相关投注”
5. “Polymarket的永续合约24小时交易额达4843万美元”
6. “高盛禁止员工交易预测市场，内幕交易阴影笼罩华尔街”
7. “predict.fun的手续费全面低于Polymarket”
8. “北卡罗来纳州率先举措：从2027年起对Kalshi等预测市场征收6%的税”