Progress in MiCA Regulation (Issue 3 · Week 28, 2026)

01Event Overview

On July 1, 2026, AscendEX announced its shutdown and suspension of withdrawals due to the lack of EU MiCA authorization as well as financing failures, exposing the compliance risks and fragile capital structures of exchanges. During the same period, the implementation of the EU’s MiCA regulations spurred the rise of compliant stablecoins. The EURC issued by Circle obtained a license in France, with both on-chain activity and the number of new addresses reaching four-year highs. However, soaring compliance costs led to an accelerated shift toward oligopoly in the industry. The proportion of funding for early-stage projects dropped sharply, while giants acquired licensed institutions at low prices to speed up the institutionalization of infrastructure.

02Course of the incident

• [2026-06-16] The compliance prospects of Binance in Europe are said to depend on the approval process in France, drawing significant attention from the market regarding its regulatory path.
• [2026-06-19] WhiteBIT obtained Austria’s MiCA license, marking the countdown phase for its compliant operations across Europe.
• [2026-07-01] AscendEX announced it would shut down and suspend withdrawals due to failure to get the EU’s MiCA license as well as financing issues, exposing the compliance risks and financial vulnerabilities of exchanges.
• [2026-07-07] Clearstream, a subsidiary of the Deutsche Börse, added six new crypto asset custody services aimed at meeting the needs of institutions for compliant digital asset services under EU MiCA regulations.
• [2026-07-09] Wisconsin and New York State filed criminal charges against Circle for refusing to freeze fraudulent assets, sparking a fierce debate over the technical architecture of stablecoins and their legal obligations.
• [2026-07-10] The implementation of EU MiCA regulations has spurred the rise of compliant stablecoins. EURC, issued by Circle, obtained a French license, with both on-chain activity and the number of new addresses reaching four-year highs.

03Impact Analysis

The implementation of MiCA regulations is profoundly reshaping the landscape of the crypto market, exerting significant impacts on everything from price volatility and regulatory battles to ecosystem restructuring.

In terms of market prices, soaring compliance costs have led to a reevaluation of industry valuation methodologies. Data from July 9, 2026, shows that five acquisition deals over the past month indicate that giants are taking advantage of bear markets to acquire licensed institutions at low prices, resulting in a 90% reduction in their valuations and accelerating the transition of infrastructure from an informal setup to a more institutionalized form. Meanwhile, compliance pressures have directly threatened the survival of some platforms. AscendEX was shut down on July 1, 2026, for failing to meet MiCA standards, leaving it with millions of dollars in funding gaps and exposing its users to the risk of partial or total loss of funds. Although the market value of compliant assets has increased by 128%, the market value of MiCA-compliant euro stablecoins accounts for only 0.22% of the dollar-based market, indicating that compliant assets have not yet challenged the dominance of the dollar.

Regarding regulatory responses, conflicts between legal obligations and technical architectures are intensifying. On July 9, 2026, Wisconsin and New York state filed criminal charges against Circle for failing to freeze fraudulent assets, triggering a compliance crisis for stablecoins. At the EU level, the enforcement of MiCA regulations has spurred the rise of compliant stablecoins. The EURC issued by Circle obtained a license in France, with both on-chain activity and the number of new addresses reaching four-year highs. However, regulatory disputes persist; the European Central Bank has warned about the risks of excessive issuance, while Bruegel calls for the relaxation of liquidity restrictions. In the United States, Gate US received approval from Florida on July 10, 2026, expanding its compliant operations to 47 jurisdictions.

In terms of ecological impacts, the industry is showing signs of oligopoly and stifled innovation. Data from July 5, 2026, reveals a 90% drop in financing amounts, with a sharp decline in funding for early-stage projects as capital concentrates among established giants. On July 7, 2026, Clearstream added six new crypto asset custodianship services, covering assets such as Ripple and Solana, to meet the compliance needs of institutions under EU MiCA regulations. High compliance costs and capital concentration are suppressing early-stage innovation, turning the crypto industry into a battleground for traditional financial players. On July 10, 2026, Polymarket applied for an FCM license in the United States, aiming to offer compliant margin trading services.

04Key points to watch going forward

1. Market Penetration of MiCA-Compliant Stablecoins
   The implementation of the EU’s MiCA regulations has driven record-high levels of activity on the EURC chain as well as an increase in new addresses over the past four years. It is essential to continuously monitor the market value share of compliant euro stablecoins, which currently accounts for only 0.22% of the dollar-based market. Warning threshold: If the risk of excessive issuance warned about by the European Central Bank materializes, or if the liquidity restrictions called for by Bruegel are not relaxed, resulting in a significant slowdown in the growth rate of the market value of compliant stablecoins, it will affect the efficiency of institutional capital inflows under the MiCA framework.

2. Compliance-Driven Shutdowns of Exchanges and Repayment Risks
   AscendEX was shut down on July 1, 2026, due to its failure to meet MiCA standards, with automatic withdrawals suspended. Users now face risks related to manual audits and shortages in funds held in hot wallets amounting to millions of dollars. It is necessary to track the number of platform closures caused by compliance pressures and the progress of user repayments. Warning threshold: If more platforms close down due to soaring compliance costs, and official figures regarding frozen amounts and repayment timelines are not disclosed, it will trigger a crisis of trust within the industry.

3. Mergers and Acquisitions by Giants and Concentration of Compliance Licenses
   Five acquisition deals over the past month show that giants are acquiring licensed institutions at low prices to accelerate the institutionalization of crypto infrastructure. It is important to monitor the frequency of acquisitions of compliance licenses by giants such as Samsung and Figure, as well as changes in their valuation. Warning threshold: If high compliance costs continue to drive a sharp decline in the financing ratio for early-stage projects, leading to further oligopolization in the industry, it will stifle innovation and intensify the competitive dynamics typical of traditional finance.

4. Expansion of State-Level Compliance Frameworks in the United States
   Gate US has obtained a money transmission license in Florida, expanding its compliance footprint to 47 jurisdictions across the U.S. It is necessary to track the speed of licensing approvals and regulatory consistency among different U.S. states regarding crypto services. Warning threshold: If significant discrepancies or regressions occur in state-level licensing processes, it will impact the overall compliance efficiency of the U.S. market, thereby affecting the compliance strategy planning of crypto companies worldwide.

05Related Reads

1. “Refused to Freeze: 380,000 People Charged criminally; Compliance Crisis for Stablecoins Erupts”
2. “MiCA Takes Effect, Triggering a Compliance Wave: EURC’s On-Chain Data Reaches Four-Year High”
3. “Valuations Cut in Half by 90%; Giants Seize Compliance Licenses Amid Bear Market”
4. “Deutsche Börse’s Subsidiary Expands to Six Currencies: New Path for Institutional Compliance under MiCA”
5. “Compliance Pressures Force Platforms to Shut Down; Hot Wallet Gap Reaches Millions of Dollars”
6. “Compliance-Driven Market Value Soars 128%, Yet Still Can’t Challenge Dollar Dominance”
7. “Gate US Gets Florida Approval; U.S. Compliance Coverage Expands to 47 Jurisdictions”
8. “Funding Drops by 90%; Crypto Startups’ Journey from Bedroom Code to Compliance Barriers Over Ten Years”
9. “Compliance Erodes Innovation: How the Crypto Industry Has Become a Copy of Traditional Finance”
10. “Polymarket Applies for U.S. FCM License to Offer Margin Trading in Compliance”
11. “Compliance Failures Lead to Shutdown: AscendEX’s Withdrawals Stuck in Manual Review Quagmire”