On-Chain Events Calendar (Issue 10 · Week 29, 2026)

01Important Events of Today

On July 12, 2026, U.S.-based wallets transferred over $290 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime, signaling the standardization of institutional asset management and alleviating concerns about selling pressure in the market. On the same day, MicroStrategy broke its promise to “never sell Bitcoin,” planning to liquidate $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to cover preferred stock dividend payments and release long-term locked-up liquidity. On July 13, the circulating supply of USDC dropped by over $13 billion in just one month, marking the largest decline since the Terra collapse and raising concerns about the competitiveness of stablecoins.

02Token Unlock Reminder

The following data was collected by the system, showing a total of 15 token unlocking records.

03Macroeconomic Calendar

As of 2026-07-15, the interplay between macroeconomic and geopolitical risks has significantly impacted expectations regarding liquidity in the crypto market.

1. Escalating geopolitical conflicts have caused severe fluctuations in the energy market. On 07-12, the U.S. revoked Iran’s oil export licenses and intensified military strikes, prompting Iran to close off the strait. As a result, WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose by over 3.3% simultaneously, with WTI breaking through $75 at one point, highlighting the vulnerability of global supply chains.

2. Turbulence in traditional financial markets has heightened risk-aversion sentiment. On 07-13, affected by geopolitical tensions and reports from brokerage firms, South Korea’s stock market tumbled by more than 8%, triggering circuit breakers. The stock price of SK Hynix dropped by half within three weeks, with mandatory liquidations amounting to 344.2 billion won in July, signaling potential risks associated with the bursting of the AI bubble.

3. The Federal Reserve remains cautious in its policy stance. On 07-13, the Fed’s June meeting minutes indicated that raising interest rates is not an immediate priority, with policy adjustments depending entirely on future inflation data. While this eases concerns about aggressive tightening, the significant reduction in official statements has raised worries about market volatility.

04Operation suggestions

Operational Recommendations and Risk Warnings

Report Date: 2026-07-15

Operational Recommendations

1. Defensive Position Reducing for Projects Facing High Selling Pressure Given that ZRO will see approximately 25.71 million tokens unlocked on 2026-07-20, worth around $22.05 million, and KAITO will unlock tokens worth about $8.1 million on the same day, there will be a significant short-term supply shock.

• Triggers: If the intraday trading volume of ZRO or KAITO drops below 50% of its recent average by 2026-07-18, and their prices fall below the 5-day moving average.
• Execution Criteria: Take moderate defensive actions on positions holding these tokens by gradually reducing holdings to avoid the risk of concentrated selling pressure around 2026-07-20.
• Time Frame: Within this week.

2. Building Positions in Phases by Taking Advantage of Extreme Market Sentiment The current market sentiment index is in the fear zone at 38/100, coupled with a surge in Whale activity levels by 46–60 points, indicating that funds might be accumulating assets at lower prices.

• Triggers: If the current price of BTC remains above the support level of $64,982.00, and the price of ETH stabilizes and rebounds above $1,890.44.
• Execution Criteria: Adopt a phased approach to building positions in major assets (BTC/ETH) instead of going all-in at once, to accumulate holdings during periods of low sentiment.
• Time Frame: Over the next 2 weeks.

3. Monitoring Structural Opportunities Driven by Regulatory Advancements Ripple received a MiCA license from Luxembourg on 2026-07-06, covering 30 countries in Europe, providing long-term regulatory compliance backing for XRP.

• Triggers: If the current price of XRP, at $1.11, breaks through short-term resistance levels, accompanied by a continuous increase in 24-hour trading volume to $1.2B.
• Execution Criteria: Consider increasing holdings of XRP to capture value revaluation opportunities after regulatory approvals are implemented, but set strict stop-loss levels to guard against short-term volatility.
• Time Frame: This month.

Risk Warnings

1. Liquidity Shock Caused by Concentrated Unlocks Multiple tokens will see large-scale unlocks this week, including nearly $29 million unlocked for CONX in a single day, as well as 16.23 million tokens unlocked for LAB on 2026-07-14, accounting for 5% of its circulating market value.

• Warning Trigger: If the price of related tokens experiences a daily drop of over 10% around the date of unlocking, accompanied by a significant reduction in buying interest, be alert to the risk of liquidity depletion.

2. Existing Selling Pressure and Underwhelming Demand Validation Although Worldcoin (WLD) will reduce its daily release volume by 43% on 2026-07-24, the 4.9 billion already released tokens represent substantial selling pressure.

• Warning Trigger: If the price of WLD fails to generate genuine demand through on-chain activity by 2026-07-24, leading to continued price declines, be cautious of the risk that its long-term value proposition may not hold up.

3. Risk of Severe Market Sentiment Fluctuations The market sentiment index has seen a sharp rise from 14.2 to 50.1 recently, before falling back into the fear zone at 38.

• Warning Trigger: If the sentiment index experiences another sharp daily fluctuation of over 20 points, accompanied by a rapid shift in opinions among key influencers, be prepared to defend against potential panic-driven selling waves.