SpaceX Stock Slides 20% as First Earnings Face $1.2B Unlock Pressure

Woofun AI reports that SpaceX is set to unveil its inaugural quarterly earnings report on August 4, marking a critical juncture for the newly public entity. The disclosure, authored by Zhang Yaqi for Wall Street Insights, arrives as the stock has already endured a significant correction, falling 20% from its IPO price of $135 and plunging 46% from its all-time high of $201.80 recorded on June 16. This initial financial transparency test occurs against a backdrop of sustained market skepticism, with the stock price declining for four consecutive weeks leading up to the announcement. The market’s reaction will hinge on whether the reported figures can stabilize investor confidence amidst these prevailing downward trends.

The depth of analyst skepticism is evident in the recent price action, which has seen the stock drop 20% from its listing price over four consecutive weeks. Colin Canfield, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, highlighted the unpredictability of this initial quarter, noting that "there could be extreme deviations in the profit expectations." This sentiment reflects the broader market struggle to calibrate profit expectations for a company with no prior public trading history. The 46% decline from the June 16 peak further underscores the volatility, suggesting that investors are pricing in significant uncertainty regarding the company's ability to meet or exceed these elusive benchmarks.

Looming over the earnings release is substantial selling pressure from impending share unlocks, which threatens to exacerbate the current downward trend. Approximately 912 million shares are scheduled to become available for trading on August 6, followed by another 319 million shares within one week thereafter. This influx of liquidity from early investors creates a structural headwind, with market attention fixated on the stock’s performance on Thursday and Friday. A strong earnings report may serve as the only catalyst capable of reversing this momentum, as the sheer volume of unlocked shares could overwhelm buying interest if the financial results fail to impress.

The AI segment presents a complex dichotomy of high revenue potential versus massive operational losses, serving as the primary source of uncertainty in this quarter’s report. SpaceX structures its earnings across three segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI, with the latter being the most volatile. The core asset, xAI, was merged into SpaceX in February and currently operates two terrestrial data centers: Colossus I in Tennessee and Colossus II in Mississippi. In the first quarter, the AI business generated $818 million in revenue but incurred an operating loss of $2.5 billion, with capital expenditures reaching $7.7 billion. These figures illustrate the heavy investment required to build out AI infrastructure, raising questions about the path to profitability.

New data center deals with tech giants introduce additional variables to the AI segment’s financial outlook. SpaceX has signed agreements with Anthropic and Google to lease AI data centers, with the Anthropic deal valued at $1.25 billion per month. Deliveries under this agreement began increasing gradually from May to June, while the Google agreement has not yet commenced. Consequently, actual revenue from the AI business this quarter could vary significantly, making it difficult to predict trends in profit margins and the pace of additional capital expenditures. Investors are particularly eager for guidance on the company’s outlook for the second half of this year and 2027, as well as the timeline for using Starship to launch low-cost AI computing satellites.

Woofun AI data shows that Starlink remains the most stable profit driver within the Connectivity business, with user growth serving as the key metric for market assessment. By the end of the first quarter, Starlink had reached 10.3 million subscribers, more than doubling from the 5 million recorded 12 months earlier. The business generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit during that period. In this quarter’s earnings report, user growth figures will be a focal point, with Colin Canfield expecting disclosures on average revenue per user (ARPU) and contract backlogs in the enterprise and government sectors. These metrics will help investors gauge the commercial maturity of Starlink and its future growth potential.

The Space segment, which embodies SpaceX’s core technological narrative, continues to face significant financial headwinds despite operational progress. In the first quarter, this segment generated $4.1 billion in revenue but suffered an operating loss of $657 million, with capital expenditures on new facilities and equipment amounting to $1.1 billion. In the second quarter, Falcon 9 completed around 36 launches, most of which were used for deploying Starlink satellites and are not included in the Space segment’s revenue. Progress on Starship is also under close scrutiny; in July, Starship completed its 13th flight test, and investors will seek updates on the timing of the 14th test and the scale of continued investment in this rocket, which is crucial for future commercial payload launches and AI satellite deployment.

Wall Street forecasts for the second quarter reflect a cautious optimism, with total revenue expected to be around $6.9 billion and EBITDA at approximately $2.1 billion. For the full year, revenue is projected to reach $39 billion, with EBITDA estimated at $17.3 billion. Colin Canfield is relatively optimistic, expecting results to beat forecasts and come with positive guidance.

However, the reliability of these predictions is questionable due to the lack of historical data for this first quarterly report after listing. The absence of a baseline means actual figures could deviate significantly from these estimates, introducing further uncertainty into the market’s interpretation of the results.

Valuation concerns and market cap realities add another layer of complexity to the earnings narrative. With a current market cap of around $1.4 trillion, SpaceX corresponds to an estimated 35 times its 2026 revenue, a multiple that has sparked intense valuation debates. The supply pressure from outstanding shares, combined with concerns about the market’s distracted attention away from Elon Musk, will influence post-earnings reactions. These factors highlight the tension between the company’s ambitious growth trajectory and the immediate financial realities it must confront in its first public quarter.

For investors, this weekend could prove to be quite turbulent as the market digests the first quarterly report. The convergence of stock price declines, massive share unlocks, and AI segment losses creates a high-stakes environment where any deviation from expectations could trigger significant volatility. The market’s reaction will depend on whether the reported figures can provide clarity on the company’s path to profitability and sustainable growth. This marks a pivotal moment for SpaceX as it transitions from a private entity to a publicly traded company under intense scrutiny.