Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

Active

Kalshi

Open 2026-05-12Ends 2029-01-20Settlement Source https://whitehouse.gov/

Total Volume$35.14M+$45.3K · 24H

Open Interest$15.47M--

Candidate Tiers9--

Traders----

Before Jan 20, 2029

23%0%

Before 2028

17%0%

Before 2027

6.2%+0.1%

Before November

4%+1%

AI Quick Read

WOOFUN AI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?Updated Aug 16, 2026 04:16 GMT+8

This betting market focuses on whether the U.S. government will officially confirm the existence of aliens by 2027. Currently, only about 23% of the market is inclined to “YES”, indicating that most traders are pessimistic about this, believing that the likelihood of such an event occurring in the short term is low. The key point to watch is whether there will be breakthroughs in official U.S. policy actions and declassified documents over the next four years, in order to verify the accuracy of market expectations.

Prediction Probability Trend

Before Jan 20, 202924%Before 202818%Before 20276%

Leading TierBefore Jan 20, 202923% · #8

Most Active TierBefore 2027Volume $26.93M

Largest 24H Move-1%Before July

Spot to $100----

Candidate Outcomes · Price Tiers

9 tiers

Candidate TierProbability24HProbability DistributionVolumeOdds

Before Jan 20, 2029

23%

$519.66K

YES 23¢NO 77¢

Before 2028

17%

$519.55K

YES 17¢NO 83¢

Before 2027

6.2%

+0.1%

$26.93M

YES 6¢NO 94¢

Before November

+1%

$187.96K

YES 4¢NO 96¢

Before December

-1%

$138.15K

YES 3¢NO 97¢

Before October

$137.79K

YES 2¢NO 98¢

Before July

-1%

$3.15M

YES 0¢NO 100¢

9 candidate tiers · Total volume $247.00MOpen interest $2.04M · Each tier settles YES/NO independently

Market Rules & Background

Kalshi

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.

Market Open Time2026-05-12 20:00:00

Settlement Date2029-01-20

Settlement Sourcehttps://whitehouse.gov/

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