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The 5-year TIPS inflation breakeven rate is the market’s pricing of the average annual inflation rate over the next 5 years. It has averaged 73 basis points higher post-COVID (blue) than pre-GFC (red).

Also note that the standard deviation range (shaded) post-COVID is completely above the standard deviation range pre-COVID. Inflation expectations have stepped higher.

Inflation expectations are saying the post-COVID environment is a different regime from the previous one. They are not the same (see the thread linked above).

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