🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran may be baiting the U.S. Navy into the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's new anti-ship missile may be less about sinking an American carrier today than deciding where the U.S. Navy fights tomorrow.

Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar argues Tehran is trying to bait American warships deeper into the Strait of Hormuz.

The reason is geography.

With regional ports damaged, Aguilar says U.S. ships are operating with restricted maneuverability and increasingly difficult supply lines, including reliance on Diego Garcia more than 2,000 miles away.

Iran, meanwhile, knows roughly where those ships have to operate.

Now it has demonstrated a medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile specifically designed for warships and equipped, Aguilar says, with capabilities intended to defeat shipboard countermeasures.

His expectation is that Washington may respond by doing exactly what Tehran wants: pushing naval forces farther into Hormuz to demonstrate U.S. control and strip Iran of its biggest negotiating lever.

Aguilar thinks that attempt would fail.

And Iran has spent months preparing the neighborhood with missiles, drones, mines and coastal weapons.

The U.S. wants to prove it can control the Strait.

Iran may be trying to convince it to come closer and prove it.