TimmerFidelity：And Bitcoin? A new 4-year cycle bull marke…

Oil prices are on the move again, with the Brent forward contract making steady new highs to $92/bl. That’s inflationary and should cause yields to climb further, but for now at least this “rate scare” is starting to get offset by a “growth scare” in the form of a quick unraveling in the more speculative parts of the AI buildout. Perhaps the move lower in bond yields last week was just a temporary risk-off trade, but maybe the market has concluded that the AI boom (and possible bust) could have systemic consequences for the broader economy.

2026-10-21 06:25568

It promises to be another eventful week as a confluence of developments comes head-to-head. It’s a tug-of-war and it will be interesting to see which “scare” wins. Hopefully, it’s neither. Let’s explore. https://t.co/oORNk5zvjD

2026-10-21 03:02375

And Bitcoin? A new 4-year cycle bull market could be underway, based on its power law patterns. There doesn’t seem to be a narrative, but then again, bull markets rarely start with one. https://t.co/trJJ2giWdh

2026-10-17 05:561.7K231

Gold and Bitcoin both remain in holding patterns. Below is gold, which has seen steady inflows but continues to be held down by a deceleration in global liquidity growth (per the tightening in financial conditions mentioned earlier). https://t.co/IYrjeOvTCf

2026-10-17 00:0130231

Both commodities and managed futures have continued to shine as diversifiers, namely 1-5 year TIPS. As an asset class, they are much less correlated to bonds than the regular TIPS index and have little correlation to equities. https://t.co/brvtZ9QZrU

2026-10-16 09:041469

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